Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s
| Title: | Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s |
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| Authors: | Hales, Simon |
| Added Details: | Kovats, Sari, author, editor. Lloyd, Simon (Environmental health specialist), author, editor. Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid, editor. World Health Organization, issuing body. World Health Organization. Health Security and Environment Cluster, issuing body. |
| ISBN: | 9789241507691 9241507691 |
| Call Numbers: | RA793 .H354 2014eb |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (viii, 115 pages) : color illustrations |
| Supplemental Data: | Online resource; title from PDF cover (World Health Organization, viewed January 2, 2015). |
| Abstract: | Overview: This assessment is an update and a further development of the assessment first published by WHO for the year 2000, now with a wider range of health impacts, and projections for future years. It takes into account a subset of the possible health impacts, and assumes continued economic growth and health progress. The assessment takes into account a subset of the possible health impacts, and assumes continued economic growth and health progress. Even under these conditions, it concludes that climate change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2050; 38 000 due to heat exposure in elderly people, 48 000 due to diarrhoea, 60 000 due to malaria, and 95 000 due to childhood undernutrition. Results indicate that the burden of disease from climate change in the future will continue to fall mainly on children in developing countries, but that other population groups will be increasingly affected. "Climate change is expected to affect many aspects of health. This report presents an assessment of the expected results on a subset of these health outcomes, for which quantitative evidence is available at the global level: heat-related mortality, coastal flood mortality, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue and undernutrition. Although the assessment does not include all potential health risks, it makes clear that climate change is likely to have significant impacts in coming decades, and indicates the scale and nature of the challenges that need to be addressed through strengthening health resilience to climate risks, and mitigating climate change."--Page 4 of cover. |
| Subjects: | Climatic changes Health aspects Forecasting., Climatic changes Forecasting., Mortality Forecasting., Heat stroke Mortality Forecasting., Heat exhaustion Mortality Forecasting., Drowning Forecasting., Diarrhea Mortality Forecasting., Malaria Mortality Forecasting., Dengue Mortality Forecasting., Starvation Mortality Forecasting., Environmental health., Climate Change mortality, Climate Change statistics & numerical data, Environmental Health, Heat Stress Disorders mortality, Drowning mortality, Diarrhea mortality, Malaria mortality, Dengue mortality, Malnutrition mortality, Forecasting methods, Climat Changements Prévision., Mortalité Prévision., Noyade Prévision., Diarrhée Mortalité Prévision., Paludisme Mortalité Prévision., Dengue Mortalité Prévision., Inanition Mortalité Prévision., Hygiène du milieu., Mortality Forecasting, Climatic changes Forecasting, Climatic changes, Climatic changes Health aspects, Dengue, Diarrhea, Drowning, Forecasting, Malaria, Malnutrition, Mortality |
| Index Terms: | Climatic changes, Death, Reports |
| URL: | |
| Availability: | Open access content. Open access content |
| Note: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 105-112). Figures -- Tables -- Abbreviations -- Executive summary -- Introduction and key findings / Methods and data -- Findings -- Discussion -- Heat-related mortality / Background -- Model development -- Quantifying the association between temperature and mortality -- Scenario data -- Mortality -- Adaptation assumptions projections -- Results -- Uncertainty -- Discussion -- Coastal flood mortality / Background -- Quantifying the burden of flood-related disasters -- Objectives -- Description of the model -- Scenario data -- Assumptions -- Results -- Discussion -- Diarrhoeal disease / Background -- Description of model -- Existing quantifications of the diarrhoea-temperature relationship -- Model development -- Scenario data -- Climate data -- Assumptions -- Results -- Climate uncertainty -- Discussion -- Limitations of this study -- Malaria / Background -- Description of the model -- Malaria data -- Climate data (observed) -- GDP data -- Population data -- Estimating model parameters and validation -- Final model -- Scenario data -- Results -- Model parameters -- Change in malaria risk in 2030 and 2050 -- Population at risk of malaria -- Discussion -- Dengue / Description of the model -- Dengue distribution data (observed) -- Climate data (observed) -- Scenario data -- Statistical analysis -- Validation of model -- Results: time periods and scenarios -- Model -- Population at risk -- Projection of mortality -- Discussion -- Undernutrition / Background -- Assessment method: linking crop, trade and health impact models -- Step 1: national calorie availability estimates -- Step 2: within-country food distribution estimates -- Step 3: estimates of child stunting -- Step 4: estimates of all-cause mortality attributable to stunting -- Scenario data -- Observed climate data -- Climate scenarios -- GDP and population projections -- Scaling output for consistency with other health outcomes in the global assessment -- Results -- Regional estimates of children with stunting due to climate change -- Uncertainty -- Parameter uncertainty in the health model -- Uncertainty in stunting-attributable death -- Discussion -- Future worlds and scenario data / Introduction -- Climate data: observed -- Climate scenario data -- Population projections -- GDP data -- Mortality projections -- References -- Definition of regions used in this assessment. 1. 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 2. 2.1. 2.2. 2.3. 2.4. 2.5. 2.6. 2.7. 2.8. 2.9. 3. 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4. 3.5. 3.6. 3.7. 3.8. 4. 4.1. 4.1.1 Sensitivity of diarrhoeal disease to climate variability and climate change -- 4.2. 4.2.1. 4.2.2. 4.3. 4.3.1. 4.3.2. Diarrhoea mortality projections -- 4.4. 4.5. 4.6. 4.7. 4.7.1. 5. 5.1. 5.2. 5.2.1. 5.2.2. 5.2.3. 5.2.4. 5.3. 5.3.1. 5.4. 5.5. 5.5.1. 5.5.2. 5.6. 5.7. 6. 6.1. Background -- 6.2. 6.2.1. 6.2.2. 6.2.3 GDP and population data -- 6.3. 6.4. 6.4.1. 6.5. 6.5.1. 6.5.2. 6.5.3. 6.6. 7. 7.1. 7.2. 7.2.1. 7.2.2. 7.2.3. 7.2.4. 7.3. 7.3.1. 7.3.2. 7.3.3. 7.3.4. 7.4. 7.5. 7.6 Mortality due to climate change-attributable undernutrition -- 7.7. 7.7.1. 7.7.2. 7.8. 8. 8.1. 8.2. 8.3. 8.4. 8.5. 8.6. 9. Annex. Sari Kovats, Simon Hales, Simon Lloyd -- Yasushi Honda, Masahide Kondo, Glenn McGregor, Ho Kim, Yue-Leon Guo, Simon Hales, Sari Kovats -- Simon Lloyd, Sari Kovats, Zaid Chalabi -- Sari Kovats, Simon Lloyd -- Andreas Béguin, Joacim Rocklöv, Christofer Åström, Rainer Sauerborn, Valerie Louis, Simon Hales -- Christofer Åström, Joacim Rocklöv, Andreas Béguin, Rainer Sauerborn, Valerie Louis, Simon Hales -- Simon Lloyd, Sari Kovats, Zaid Chalabi -- Sari Kovats, Simon Lloyd, Sophie Bonjour, Colin Mathers |
| Other Numbers: | LE0 oai:apo.org.au:41763 897764432 |
| Contributing Source: | From OAIster®, provided by the OCLC Cooperative. |
| Accession Number: | edsoai.ocn897764432 |
| Database: | OAIster |
| ISBN: | 9789241507691 9241507691 |
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