Academic Journal
Burden of disease scenarios by state in the USA, 2022–50: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
| Τίτλος: | Burden of disease scenarios by state in the USA, 2022–50: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
|---|---|
| Συγγραφείς: | Mokdad, AH, Bisignano, C, Hsu, JM, Bryazka, D, Cao, S, Bhattacharjee, NV, Dalton, BE, Lindstedt, PA, Smith, AE, Ababneh, HS, Abbasgholizadeh, R, Abdelkader, A, Abdi, P, Abiodun, OO, Aboagye, RG, Abukhadijah, HJ, Abu-Zaid, A, Acuna, JM, Addo, IY, Adekanmbi, V, Adeyeoluwa, TE, Adzigbli, LA, Afolabi, AA, Afrashteh, F, Agyemang-Duah, W, Ahmad, S, Ahmadzade, M, Ahmed, A, Ahmed, SA, Akkaif, MA, Akkala, S, Akrami, AE, Al Awaidy, S, Al Hasan, SM, Al Ta'ani, O, Al Zaabi, OAM, Alahdab, F, Al-Ajlouni, Y, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, M, Aldhaleei, WA, Algammal, AM, Alhassan, RK, Ali, MU, Ali, R, Ali, W, Al-Ibraheem, A, Almustanyir, S, Alqahatni, SA, Alrawashdeh, A, Al-Rifai, RH, Alsabri, MA, Alshahrani, NZ, Al-Tawfiq, JA, Al-Wardat, M, Aly, H, Amindarolzarbi, A, Amiri, S, Anil, A, Anyasodor, AE, Arabloo, J, Arafat, M, Aravkin, AY, Ardekani, A, Areda, D, Asghariahmadabad, M, Ayanore, MA, Ayyoubzadeh, SM, Azadnajafabad, S, Azhar, GS, Aziz, S, Azzam, AY, Babu, GR, Baghdadi, S, Bahreini, R, Bako, AT, Bärnighausen, TW, Bastan, MM, Basu, S, Batra, K, Batra, R, Behnoush, AH, Bemanalizadeh, M, Benzian, H, Bermudez, ANC, Bernstein, RS, Beyene, KA, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhala, N, Bharadwaj, R, Bhargava, A, Bhaskar, S, Bhat, V, Bhuyan, SS, Bodunrin, AO, Boxe, C, Boyko, EJ, Braithwaite, D, Brauer, M |
| Πηγή: | The Lancet , 404 (10469) pp. 2341-2370. (2024) |
| Στοιχεία εκδότη: | Elsevier BV |
| Έτος έκδοσης: | 2024 |
| Συλλογή: | University College London: UCL Discovery |
| Θεματικοί όροι: | Adult, Aged, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Cause of Death, Disability-Adjusted Life Years, Forecasting, Life Expectancy, Risk Factors, United States, Cost of Illness, Population Health |
| Περιγραφή: | Background: The capacity to anticipate future health issues is important for both policy makers and practitioners in the USA, as such insights can facilitate effective planning, investment, and implementation strategies. Forecasting trends in disease and injury burden is not only crucial for policy makers but also garners substantial interest from the general populace and leads to a better-informed public. Through the integration of new data sources, the refinement of methodologies, and the inclusion of additional causes, we have improved our previous forecasting efforts within the scope of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to produce forecasts at the state and national levels for the USA under various possible scenarios. Methods: We developed a comprehensive framework for forecasting life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), cause-specific mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 359 causes of disease and injury burden from 2022 to 2050 for the USA and all 50 states and Washington, DC. Using the GBD 2021 Future Health Scenarios modelling framework, we forecasted drivers of disease, demographic drivers, risk factors, temperature and particulate matter, mortality and years of life lost (YLL), population, and non-fatal burden. In addition to a reference scenario (representing the most probable future trajectory), we explored various future scenarios and their potential impacts over the next several decades on human health. These alternative scenarios comprised four risk elimination scenarios (including safer environment, improved behavioural and metabolic risks, improved childhood nutrition and vaccination, and a combined scenario) and three USA-specific scenarios based on risk exposure or attributable burden in the best-performing US states (improved high adult BMI and high fasting plasma glucose [FPG], improved smoking, and improved drug use [encompassing opioids, cocaine, amphetamine, and others]). Findings: Life expectancy in the USA is projected ... |
| Τύπος εγγράφου: | article in journal/newspaper |
| Περιγραφή αρχείου: | application/pdf |
| Γλώσσα: | English |
| Relation: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10203333/1/PIIS0140673624022463.pdf; https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10203333/ |
| Διαθεσιμότητα: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10203333/1/PIIS0140673624022463.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10203333/ |
| Rights: | open |
| Αριθμός Καταχώρησης: | edsbas.B1C2056E |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | BASE |
| Η περιγραφή δεν είναι διαθέσιμη |