Academic Journal

Burden of disease scenarios by state in the USA, 2022–50: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
Τίτλος: Burden of disease scenarios by state in the USA, 2022–50: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Συγγραφείς: Mokdad A. H., Bisignano C., Hsu J. M., Bryazka D., Cao S., Bhattacharjee N. V., Dalton B. E., Lindstedt P. A., Smith A. E., Ababneh H. S., Abbasgholizadeh R., Abdelkader A., Abdi P., Abiodun O. O., Aboagye R. G., Abukhadijah H. J., Abu-Zaid A., Acuna J. M., Addo I. Y., Adekanmbi V., Adeyeoluwa T. E., Adzigbli L. A., Afolabi A. A., Afrashteh F., Agyemang-Duah W., Ahmad S., Ahmadzade M., Ahmed A., Ahmed S. A., Akkaif M. A., Akkala S., Akrami A. E., Al Awaidy S., Al Hasan S. M., Al Ta'ani O., Al Zaabi O. A. M., Alahdab F., Al-Ajlouni Y., Al-Aly Z., Alam M., Aldhaleei W. A., Algammal A. M., Alhassan R. K., Ali M. U., Ali R., Ali W., Al-Ibraheem A., Almustanyir S., Alqahatni S. A., Alrawashdeh A., Al-Rifai R. H., Alsabri M. A., Alshahrani N. Z., Al-Tawfiq J. A., Al-Wardat M., Aly H., Amindarolzarbi A., Amiri S., Anil A., Anyasodor A. E., Arabloo J., Arafat M., Aravkin A. Y., Ardekani A., Areda D., Asghariahmadabad M., Ayanore M. A., Ayyoubzadeh S. M., Azadnajafabad S., Azhar G. S., Aziz S., Azzam A. Y., Babu G. R., Baghdadi S., Bahreini R., Bako A. T., Barnighausen T. W., Bastan M. -M., Basu S., Batra K., Batra R., Behnoush A. H., Bemanalizadeh M., Benzian H., Bermudez A. N. C., Bernstein R. S., Beyene K. A., Bhagavathula A. S., Bhala N., Bharadwaj R., Bhargava A., Bhaskar S., Bhat V., Bhuyan S. S., Bodunrin A. O., Boxe C., Boyko E. J., Braithwaite D., Brauer M., Bugiardini R., Bustanji Y., Butt Z. A., Caetano dos Santos F. L., Capodici A., Castaldelli-Maia J. M., Cembranel F., Cenko E., Cerin E., Chan J. S. K., Chattu V. K., Chaudhary A. A., Chen A. -T., Chen G., Chi G., Ching P. R., Cho D. Y., Chong B., Choudhari S. G., Chukwu I. S., Chung E., Chung S. -C., Coker D. C., Columbus A., Conde J., Cortese S., Criqui M. H., Cruz-Martins N., Dai X., Dai Z., Damiani G., D'Anna L., Daoud F., Darcho S. D., Das S., Dash N. R., Dashtkoohi M., Degenhardt L., Des Jarlais D. C., Desai H. D., Devanbu V. G. C., Dewan S. M. R., Dhama K., Dhulipala V. R., Diaz L. A. A., Ding D. D., Do T. C., Do T. H. P., Dongarwar D., D'Oria M., Dorsey E. R., Doshi O. P., Douiri A., Dowou R. K., Dube J., Dziedzic A. M., E'mar A. R., Ebrahimi A., Ehrlich J. R. R., Ekundayo T. C., El Bayoumy I. F., Elhadi M., Elhadi Y. A. M., Eltaha C., Etaee F., Ezenwankwo E. F., Fadaka A. O., Fagbule O. F., Fahim A., Fallahpour M., Fazylov T., Feigin V. L., Feizkhah A., Fekadu G., Ferreira N., Fischer F., Gadanya M. A., Ganesan B., Ganiyani M. A., Gao X., Gebregergis M. W., Gebrehiwot M., Gholami E., Gholamrezanezhad A., Ghotbi E., Ghozy S., Gillum R. F., Gobolos L., Goldust M., Golechha M., Gouravani M., Grada A., Grover A., Guha A., Guicciardi S., Gupta R., Gupta R. D., Habibzadeh P., Haep N., Hajj Ali A., Haj-Mirzaian A., Haq Z. A., Hasaballah A. I., Hasan I., Hasan M. K., Hasan S. M. M., Hasani H., Hasnain M. S., Havmoeller R. J., Hay S. I., He J., Hebert J. J., Hemmati M., Hiraike Y., Hoan N. Q., Horita N., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc S., Hu C., Huang J., Hushmandi K., Hussain M. A., Huynh H. -H., Iftikhar P. M., Ikiroma A., Islam M. R., Islam S. M. S., Iyasu A. N., Jacob L., Jairoun A. A., Jaka S., Jakovljevic M., Jalilzadeh Yengejeh R., Jamil S., Javaheri T., Jeswani B. M., Kalani R., Kamarajah S. K., Kamireddy A., Kanmodi K. K., Kantar R. S., Karaye I. M., Katamreddy A., Kazemi F., Kazemian S., Kempen J. H., Khamesipour F., Khan A., Khan F., Khan M. J., Khanmohammadi S., Khatab K., Khatatbeh M. M., Khorgamphar M., Khormali M., Khosla A. A., Khosravi M., Kim G., Kim M. S., Kimokoti R. W., Kisa A., Kochhar S., Koren G., Krishnamoorthy V., Kuddus M. A., Kulimbet M., Kulkarni V., Kumar A., Kumar R., Kumar V., Kundu S., Kurmi O. P., Kyei E. F., Lan Q., Lansingh V. C., Le H. -H., Le N. H. H., Le T. T. T., Leasher J. L., Lee M., Lee W. -C., Li W., Lim S. S., Lin J., Liu G., Liu R. T., Liu X., Lopez-Gil J. F., Lopukhov P. D., Lucchetti G., Lunevicius R., Lv L., Maaty D. W. S., Maharaj S. B., Mahmoudi E., Makram O. M., Malakan Rad E., Malasala S., Manla Y., Mansouri V., Manu E., Martinez-Piedra R., Marzo R. R., Mathangasinghe Y., Mathur M., Matozinhos F. P., Mayeli M., McPhail S. M., Mediratta R. P., Mekene Meto T., Meles H. N., Melese E. B., Meo S. A., Mestrovic T., Metanat P., Mhlanga L., Michalek I. M., Miller T. R., Mini G. K., Mirarefin M., Moberg M. E., Mohamed J., Mohamed N. S., Mohammad A. M., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammadzadeh I., Mohammed S., Molavi Vardanjani H., Moni M. A., Moraga P., Morrison S. D., Motappa R., Munkhsaikhan Y., Murillo-Zamora E., Mustafa A., Nafei A., Naghavi P., Naik G., Najafi M. S., Nanavaty D. P., Nandu K. T. K., Nascimento G. G., Naser A. Y., Nashwan A. J., Natto Z. S., Nduaguba S. O., Nguyen D. H., Nguyen P. T., Nguyen Q. P., Nguyen V. T., Nikravangolsefid N., Niranjan V., Noor S. T. A., Nugen F., Nutor J. J., Nzoputam O. J., Oancea B., Oduro M. S., Ogundijo O. A., Ogunsakin R. E., Ojo-Akosile T. R., Okeke S. R., Okonji O. C., Olagunju A. T., Olorukooba A. A., Olufadewa I. I., Oluwafemi Y. D., Omar H. A., Opejin A., Ostroff S. M., Owolabi M. O., Ozair A., P A M. P., Panda S. K., Pandi-Perumal S. R., Parikh R. R., Park S., Pashaei A., Patel P., Patil S., Pawar S., Peprah E. K., Pereira G., Pham H. N., Philip A. K., Phillips M. R., Pigeolet M., Postma M. J., Pourbabaki R., Prabhu D., Pradhan J., Pradhan P. M. S., Puvvula J., Rafferty Q., Raggi C., Rahim M. J., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M. A., Rahmanian M., Ramadan M., Ramasamy S. K., Ramazanu S., Ranabhat C. L., Rane A., Rao S. J., Rashedi S., Rashid A. M., Ray A., Reddy M. M. R. K., Redwan E. M. M., Rhee T. G., Rodriguez J. A. B., Rojas-Rueda D., Rout H. S., Roy P., Runghien T., Saad A. M. A., Sabet C. J., Saeed U., Safari M., Sagoe D., Sajib M. R. U. Z., Saleh M. A., Salum G. A., Samuel V. P., Samy A. M., Sanabria J., Saravanan A., Saravi B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Schlaich M. P., Schuermans A., Schumacher A. E., Schwebel D. C., Selvaraj S., Seylani A., Shafie M., Shahbandi A., Shahsavari H. R., Shaikh M. A., Shamim M. A., Sharath M., Sharew N. T., Sharifan A., Sharma A., Sharma M., Shayan M., Sheikh A., Shen J., Sherchan S. P., Shetty M., Shetty P. H., Shetty P. K., Shigematsu M., Shittu A., Shivarov V., Shool S., Shuval K., Siddig E. E., Singh J. A., Singh S., Sleet D. A., Smith G., Solanki S., Soliman S. S. M., Stafford L. K., Stanaway J. D., Straif K., Sulaiman S. K., Sun J., Swain C. K., Szarpak L., Szeto M. D., Tabatabaei S. M., Tabche C., Tadakamadla J., Taiba J., Tat N. Y., Temsah M. -H., Teramoto M., Thirunavukkarasu S., Tovani-Palone M. R., Tram K. H., Tran J. T., Tran N. H., Tran T. H., Trico D., Tromans S. J., Truyen T. T. T. T., Tumurkhuu M., Udoh A., Ullah S., Vahdati S., Vaithinathan A. G., Vakili O., Van den Eynde J., Vervoort D., Vinayak M., Weerakoon K. G., Wei M. Y., Wickramasinghe N. D., Wolde A. A., Wu C., Wu F., Xiao H., Xu S., Yano Y., Yasufuku Y., Yigit A., Yon D. K., Younis M. Z., Yu C., Yuan C. -W., Zahid M. H., Zare I., Zeariya M. G. M., Zhang H., Zhang Z., Zheng R., Zhong C. C., Zhu B., Zhumagaliuly A., Zia H., Zielinska M., Zyoud S. H., Vollset S. E., Murray C. J. L.
Συνεισφορές: Mokdad, A. H., Bisignano, C., Hsu, J. M., Bryazka, D., Cao, S., Bhattacharjee, N. V., Dalton, B. E., Lindstedt, P. A., Smith, A. E., Ababneh, H. S., Abbasgholizadeh, R., Abdelkader, A., Abdi, P., Abiodun, O. O., Aboagye, R. G., Abukhadijah, H. J., Abu-Zaid, A., Acuna, J. M., Addo, I. Y., Adekanmbi, V., Adeyeoluwa, T. E., Adzigbli, L. A., Afolabi, A. A., Afrashteh, F., Agyemang-Duah, W., Ahmad, S., Ahmadzade, M., Ahmed, A., Ahmed, S. A., Akkaif, M. A., Akkala, S., Akrami, A. E., Al Awaidy, S., Al Hasan, S. M., Al Ta'Ani, O., Al Zaabi, O. A. M., Alahdab, F., Al-Ajlouni, Y., Al-Aly, Z., Alam, M., Aldhaleei, W. A., Algammal, A. M., Alhassan, R. K., Ali, M. U., Ali, R., Ali, W., Al-Ibraheem, A., Almustanyir, S., Alqahatni, S. A., Alrawashdeh, A., Al-Rifai, R. H., Alsabri, M. A., Alshahrani, N. Z., Al-Tawfiq, J. A., Al-Wardat, M., Aly, H., Amindarolzarbi, A., Amiri, S., Anil, A., Anyasodor, A. E., Arabloo, J., Arafat, M., Aravkin, A. Y., Ardekani, A., Areda, D., Asghariahmadabad, M., Ayanore, M. A., Ayyoubzadeh, S. M., Azadnajafabad, S., Azhar, G. S., Aziz, S., Azzam, A. Y., Babu, G. R., Baghdadi, S., Bahreini, R., Bako, A. T., Barnighausen, T. W., Bastan, M. -M., Basu, S., Batra, K., Batra, R., Behnoush, A. H., Bemanalizadeh, M., Benzian, H., Bermudez, A. N. C., Bernstein, R. S., Beyene, K. A., Bhagavathula, A. S., Bhala, N., Bharadwaj, R., Bhargava, A., Bhaskar, S., Bhat, V., Bhuyan, S. S., Bodunrin, A. O., Boxe, C., Boyko, E. J., Braithwaite, D., Brauer, M.
Έτος έκδοσης: 2024
Συλλογή: IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System)
Θεματικοί όροι: Global Burden of Disease, risk factor, cardiovascular, mortality
Περιγραφή: Background: The capacity to anticipate future health issues is important for both policy makers and practitioners in the USA, as such insights can facilitate effective planning, investment, and implementation strategies. Forecasting trends in disease and injury burden is not only crucial for policy makers but also garners substantial interest from the general populace and leads to a better-informed public. Through the integration of new data sources, the refinement of methodologies, and the inclusion of additional causes, we have improved our previous forecasting efforts within the scope of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to produce forecasts at the state and national levels for the USA under various possible scenarios. Methods: We developed a comprehensive framework for forecasting life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), cause-specific mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 359 causes of disease and injury burden from 2022 to 2050 for the USA and all 50 states and Washington, DC. Using the GBD 2021 Future Health Scenarios modelling framework, we forecasted drivers of disease, demographic drivers, risk factors, temperature and particulate matter, mortality and years of life lost (YLL), population, and non-fatal burden. In addition to a reference scenario (representing the most probable future trajectory), we explored various future scenarios and their potential impacts over the next several decades on human health. These alternative scenarios comprised four risk elimination scenarios (including safer environment, improved behavioural and metabolic risks, improved childhood nutrition and vaccination, and a combined scenario) and three USA-specific scenarios based on risk exposure or attributable burden in the best-performing US states (improved high adult BMI and high fasting plasma glucose [FPG], improved smoking, and improved drug use [encompassing opioids, cocaine, amphetamine, and others]). Findings: Life expectancy in the USA is projected ...
Τύπος εγγράφου: article in journal/newspaper
Περιγραφή αρχείου: STAMPA
Γλώσσα: English
Relation: info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/39645377; info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:001381480400001; volume:404; firstpage:2341; lastpage:2370; numberofpages:30; journal:THE LANCET; https://hdl.handle.net/11585/1010161
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02246-3
Διαθεσιμότητα: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/1010161
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02246-3
Rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Αριθμός Καταχώρησης: edsbas.908EE86D
Βάση Δεδομένων: BASE
Περιγραφή
DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02246-3