Academic Journal
Strategies for containing a global influenza pandemic
| Τίτλος: | Strategies for containing a global influenza pandemic |
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| Συγγραφείς: | Flahault, Antoine, Vergu, Elisabeta, Coudeville, Laurent, Grais, Rebecca F. |
| Συνεισφορές: | ProdInra, Migration, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Unité de biométrie et intelligence artificielle de Jouy (MIA-JOUY), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Sanofi |
| Πηγή: | Vaccine, Vol. 24, No 44-46 (2006) pp. 6751-5 |
| Στοιχεία εκδότη: | Elsevier BV, 2006. |
| Έτος έκδοσης: | 2006 |
| Θεματικοί όροι: | 0301 basic medicine, Disease Outbreaks/*prevention & control, Communicable Disease Control/*methods, Influenza, Human/*epidemiology/transmission, [MATH] Mathematics [math], [INFO] Computer Science [cs], Antiviral Agents, MATHEMATICAL MODELLING, Disease Outbreaks, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Influenza, Human, Humans, [INFO]Computer Science [cs], Computer Simulation, [MATH]Mathematics [math], Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use, Travel, Travel/statistics & numerical data, Models, Theoretical, IMMUNIZATION, INFLUENZA PANDEMIC, 3. Good health, Communicable Disease Control, PREVENTION AND CONTROL |
| Περιγραφή: | Mathematical modelling provides useful insight into the geographic and temporal spread of pandemic influenza. It has been recently used to assess the ability to stop a pandemic at a very early stage. Here, we model the global diffusion of pandemic influenza and the impact of available preventive and control measures. We refined a published SEIR deterministic model of disease dynamics within 52 cities interconnected via air transport to simulate the impact of five interventions in a variety of scenarios: vaccination, case isolation, therapeutic and prophylactic antiviral treatment, and air traffic reduction. The impact of these measures was assessed on the spread of a potential pandemic strain profile, with an average attack-rate of 26%, a case-fatality rate of 2.5% and a residual immunity of 25%. Our analysis highlighted the importance of: (1) a global perspective for dealing with pandemic risks; (2) the time factor and, hence, the importance of surveillance systems; (3) the complementary role of available control measures. Results provide general guidance for the issues of concern to public-health decision-makers: when to set up interventions, where, and at which administrative levels. |
| Τύπος εγγράφου: | Article |
| Περιγραφή αρχείου: | application/pdf |
| Γλώσσα: | English |
| ISSN: | 0264-410X |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.079 |
| Σύνδεσμος πρόσβασης: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16843574 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02664427v1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.079 https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:47205 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X06006311 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X06006311 https://core.ac.uk/display/22948113 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16843574 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02664427 https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:47205 |
| Rights: | Elsevier TDM |
| Αριθμός Καταχώρησης: | edsair.doi.dedup.....bb5ed304c08f0540864daf1f6d1e125a |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | OpenAIRE |
| ISSN: | 0264410X |
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| DOI: | 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.079 |