Persistence of cardiovascular risk factor changes after the great recession: fixed effects analysis of prospective cohort data from the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
Τίτλος:	Persistence of cardiovascular risk factor changes after the great recession: fixed effects analysis of prospective cohort data from the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.
Συγγραφείς:	Karlamangla AS; University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA akarlamangla@mednet.ucla.edu., Thomas D; Economics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA., Merkin SS; University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA., Moore KA; Urban Health Collaborative, Drexel University School of Public Health, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA., Watson KE; University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA., Seeman TE; University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA.
Πηγή:	BMJ open [BMJ Open] 2026 Oct 07; Vol. 16 (10), pp. e123802. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Oct 07.
Τύπος έκδοσης:	Journal Article
Γλώσσα:	English
Στοιχεία περιοδικού:	Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101552874 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2044-6055 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20446055 NLM ISO Abbreviation: BMJ Open Subsets: MEDLINE
Imprint Name(s):	Original Publication: [London] : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, 2011-
Ιατρικοί όροι (MeSH):	Atherosclerosis/ethnology , Atherosclerosis/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Economic Recession , Heart Disease Risk Factors*, C-Reactive Protein/analysis ; Ethnicity/statistics & numerical data ; United States/epidemiology ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Blood Glucose ; Blood Pressure ; Body Mass Index ; Prospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Racial Groups ; Black or African American ; Asian ; Hispanic or Latino ; White
Περίληψη:	Objective: Multiple prospective cohort studies, including the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA), have documented elevations in cardiovascular risk factors after the Great Recession (GR) of 2008, despite other studies that report mortality declines after the GR. It is possible that the deleterious effects of the GR on cardiovascular risk profiles are short-lived and reversed. We examine whether risk factor elevations seen in MESA in the 2010-2011 wave persist into the 2016-2018 wave of data collection. Design: Individual fixed effects (IFE) analysis of prospective cohort data from MESA, with rate of change in the risk factor (from wave 2 to later waves) as the dependent variable, effectively controlling for individual-specific linear trends in ageing and all time-invariant characteristics. Models included controls for time-varying characteristics. Setting: Communities centred around Baltimore, Maryland; Chicago, Illinois; Forsyth County, North Carolina; Los Angeles, California; New York City, New York; and St. Paul, Minnesota. Participants: All MESA participants who participated in at least two pre-GR waves and both post-GR waves; n=3101 (47% men, 25% African American, 21% Hispanic, 13% Asian). Outcomes: Primary: Systolic blood pressure (SBP), pulse pressure (PP), fasting blood glucose, serum C-reactive protein (CRP). Secondary: Serum low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and Body Mass Index (BMI) RESULTS: Mean SBP and PP in 2016-2018 were greater by 8.6 (95% CI 5.9 to 11.4) and 8.0 (95% CI 6.0 to 9.9) mm Hg, respectively, than predicted by individual-specific pre-GR linear ageing trends, and fasting blood glucose was 6.3% higher (95% CI 4.6 to 8.1). In comparison, corresponding increases in 2010-2011 were 2.5 and 3.0 mm Hg and 3.3%. CRP increased by 29.7% (95% CI 21.8 to 38.2) in 2010-2011 and 45.1% (95% CI 28.3 to 64.2) in 2016-2018. Mean BMI did not change in 2010-2011 but decreased by 0.5 kg/m² (95% CI -0.7 to -0.2) in 2016-2018. LDL-C decreased by 4.4 (95% CI -6.5 to -2.2) and 5.2 (95% CI -9.5 to -0.9) mg/dL in the two post-GR waves. Conclusions and Relevance: Post-GR increases in blood pressure, blood glucose and CRP in the USA not only persisted for 8-10 years after the GR but also grew in magnitude. In contrast, mean BMI and mean LDL-C reduced post-GR. Further studies are needed to uncover mechanisms (behavioural or otherwise) underlying the BMI and LDL-C reductions seen here, and the mortality consequences of these risk factor changes. (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2026. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ Group.)
Competing Interests:	Competing interests: None declared.
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Grant Information:	HHSN268201500003C United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS; N01 HC095161 United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS; N01 HC095168 United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS; N01 HC095167 United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS; N01 HC095159 United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS; UL1 TR001420 United States TR NCATS NIH HHS; N01 HC095163 United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS; HHSN268201500003I United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS; UL1 TR000040 United States TR NCATS NIH HHS; N01 HC095166 United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS; N01 HC095162 United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS; N01 HC095160 United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS; UL1 TR001079 United States TR NCATS NIH HHS; N01 HC095169 United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS; N01 HC095165 United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS; R01 AG055955 United States AG NIA NIH HHS; N01 HC095164 United States HL NHLBI NIH HHS
Contributed Indexing:	Keywords: HEALTH ECONOMICS; Inflammation; Longitudinal studies; PUBLIC HEALTH; Risk Factors; Stress, Psychological
Substance Nomenclature:	0 (Blood Glucose) 9007-41-4 (C-Reactive Protein)
Entry Date(s):	Date Created: 20261007 Date Completed: 20261007 Latest Revision: 20261010
Update Code:	20261010
PubMed Central ID:	PMC13647034
DOI:	10.1136/bmjopen-2026-123802
PMID:	42843884
Βάση Δεδομένων:	MEDLINE

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ISSN:	2044-6055
DOI:	10.1136/bmjopen-2026-123802