Academic Journal
Levels and trends in fertility rates among adolescents aged 10-14 and 15-19 in 201 countries and areas from 1950 to 2023.
| Τίτλος: | Levels and trends in fertility rates among adolescents aged 10-14 and 15-19 in 201 countries and areas from 1950 to 2023. |
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| Συγγραφείς: | Chao F; Computational Social Science Division, School of Humanities and Social Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China chaofengqing@cuhk.edu.cn., Kantorová V; Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Population Division, New York, New York, USA., Gonnella G; Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Population Division, New York, New York, USA., Schoumaker B; Centre for Demographic Research, Iacchos Institute, UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium., Sánchez-Páez DA; Department of Economic Theory, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain., Gerland P; Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Population Division, New York, New York, USA. |
| Πηγή: | BMJ global health [BMJ Glob Health] 2026 Jul 29; Vol. 11 (7). Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Jul 29. |
| Τύπος έκδοσης: | Journal Article |
| Γλώσσα: | English |
| Στοιχεία περιοδικού: | Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101685275 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Print ISSN: 2059-7908 (Print) Linking ISSN: 20597908 NLM ISO Abbreviation: BMJ Glob Health Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: [London] : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, [2016]- |
| Ιατρικοί όροι (MeSH): | Birth Rate*/trends , Pregnancy in Adolescence*/statistics & numerical data , Global Health*/statistics & numerical data, Humans ; Female ; Adolescent ; Child ; Young Adult ; Pregnancy |
| Περίληψη: | Introduction: Reducing adolescent childbearing is essential for improving sexual and reproductive health and the social and economic well-being of adolescents. Adolescent birth rate is an indicator to monitor progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Target 3.7 by 2030, ensuring universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare services. However, the availability and reliability of data on adolescent fertility rates are low. Methods: We produce annual estimates of age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) for girls aged 10-14 and 15-19 from 1950 to 2023 for the world, regions and 201 countries and territories. Based on a comprehensive ASFR database, we estimate the under-20 ASFR with a Bayesian hierarchical time series model, using covariates such as total fertility rates and female educational attainment and adjusting for biases and under-reporting. We calculate the number of births to adolescents by applying rates to the female population in the respective age groups. Results: Between 1990 and 2023, global ASFR for girls aged 10-14 decreased by 76%, from 4.5 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) (4.1 to 5.2)) to 1.1 (95% UI 0.9 to 1.4) births per 1000, while ASFR for girls aged 15-19 fell by 48%, from 74.7 (95% UI 72.5 to 77.1) to 39.0 (95% UI 36.8 to 41.4) births per 1000. In 2023, births to mothers aged 10-14 years were estimated at 347 (95% UI 285 to 454) thousand, and for those aged 15-19 years at 12.2 (95% UI 11.5 to 12.9) million. The number of births among adolescents aged 15-19 in sub-Saharan Africa increased during 1990-2023 due to population growth and slower fertility declines. Conclusion: Despite significant global reduction in adolescent childbearing, regional and national disparities persist. Targeted interventions addressing child marriage, educational inequities and lack of access to reproductive health services will be critical for achieving related SDG targets and advancing gender equality and women's empowerment. (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2026. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ Group.) |
| Competing Interests: | Competing interests: None declared. |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Child health; Gender-Based Violence; Global Health; Mathematical modelling; Medical demography |
| Molecular Sequence: | figshare 10.6084 /m9.figshare.31524454 |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20260729 Date Completed: 20260729 Latest Revision: 20260803 |
| Update Code: | 20260803 |
| DOI: | 10.1136/bmjgh-2025-021301 |
| PMID: | 42526936 |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 2059-7908 |
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| DOI: | 10.1136/bmjgh-2025-021301 |