Academic Journal
The future of births via medically assisted reproduction in Italy:Scenarios to 2050.
| Τίτλος: | The future of births via medically assisted reproduction in Italy:Scenarios to 2050. |
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| Συγγραφείς: | Burgio A; Italian National Institute of Statistics, Rome, Italy., Castagnaro C; Italian National Institute of Statistics, Rome, Italy., De Santis G; Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications, University of Florence, Florence, Italy., Vignoli D; Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications, University of Florence, Florence, Italy., Vitali A; Department of Sociology and Social Research, University of Trento, Trento, Italy. |
| Πηγή: | PloS one [PLoS One] 2026 Jul 21; Vol. 21 (7), pp. e0354135. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Jul 21 (Print Publication: 2026). |
| Τύπος έκδοσης: | Journal Article |
| Γλώσσα: | English |
| Στοιχεία περιοδικού: | Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101285081 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1932-6203 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19326203 NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS One Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science |
| Ιατρικοί όροι (MeSH): | Reproductive Techniques, Assisted*/trends , Reproductive Techniques, Assisted*/statistics & numerical data , Birth Rate*/trends, Humans ; Italy ; Female ; Maternal Age ; Adult ; Pregnancy ; Middle Aged |
| Περίληψη: | Delayed childbearing is increasingly common in high-income societies, contributing to rising demand for medically assisted reproduction (MAR). This paper presents nine possible scenarios of the future share of MAR births on the total number of births in Italy, a country internationally known for its latest-late mean age at childbearing. We combined the latest (2023) official data and three hypotheses on the evolution of maternal mean age at childbirth (no change, slow ageing, rapid ageing) with three hypotheses on the age-specific MAR-related fertility rates (no change, moderate increase, rapid increase). Our projections indicate that changes in the age structure of women of reproductive age will likely have a negligible effect on future MAR prevalence. In contrast, delayed childbearing and continued expansion of MAR use could raise the share of MAR births from 4.3% in 2023 to 11-12% by mid-century, with a plausible upper bound exceeding 15% under sustained trends. These results underscore the growing demographic, social and economic significance of MAR in Italy and highlight important implications for public health planning, resource allocation, and policies aimed at supporting earlier childbearing. (Copyright: © 2026 Burgio et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.) |
| Competing Interests: | The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20260721 Date Completed: 20260721 Latest Revision: 20260726 |
| Update Code: | 20260726 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC13387555 |
| DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0354135 |
| PMID: | 42479731 |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 1932-6203 |
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| DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0354135 |