Hazard Ratio to Life Expectancy: Gompertz-Makeham Validation of Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity Tables.

Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
Τίτλος:	Hazard Ratio to Life Expectancy: Gompertz-Makeham Validation of Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity Tables.
Συγγραφείς:	Silke B
Πηγή:	Journal of insurance medicine (New York, N.Y.) [J Insur Med] 2026 Jun 15; Vol. 53 (2), pp. 203-209. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Jun 15.
Τύπος έκδοσης:	Journal Article; Validation Study; Review
Γλώσσα:	English
Στοιχεία περιοδικού:	Publisher: American Academy of Insurance Medicine Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 8401468 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 0743-6661 (Print) Linking ISSN: 07436661 NLM ISO Abbreviation: J Insur Med Subsets: MEDLINE
Imprint Name(s):	Publication: <2000->: Potomac, MD : American Academy of Insurance Medicine Original Publication: [New York, N.Y.?] : Association of Life Insurance Medical Directors of America
Ιατρικοί όροι (MeSH):	Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Life Expectancy , Life Tables* , Multimorbidity* , Cardiometabolic Risk Factors*, Ireland/epidemiology ; Humans ; Female ; Aged ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Aged, 80 and over ; Male ; Risk Factors ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Young Adult
Περίληψη:	Objective.—: To validate Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC) high-risk cardiometabolic life years lost (LYL) tables using Gompertz-Makeham calibrated to hazard ratios, offering a reproducible framework for insurance underwriting and medico-legal life expectancy projections. Methods.—: ERFC LYL tables (91 cohorts; 689,300 participants; HR≥5) benchmarked against Irish Life Tables No. 17 via constant HR∼9.5 multiplier. Gompertz-Makeham generated risk-group survival curves; LYL as baseline-risk differential ages 40-85. Model performance via mean absolute error (MAE). Results.—: Gompertz-Makeham reproduced ERFC high-risk LYL (males MAE 1.21 years; females 1.16 years across 40-85), preserving empirical S-curve without disease-specific adjustments (Table 2; Figures 1-3). Age 40 loses, 20-22 years; age 75, 5-6 years. Conclusions.—: HR-calibrated Gompertz-Makeham provides aetiology-independent LYL estimates within 1 - 2 years mean absolute error (MAE), extending Strauss/Shavelle disability models to multimorbidity for actuarial risk assessment and forensic reports.
Contributed Indexing:	Keywords: Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (EFRC); Failure Accumulation model (Gompertz-Makeham law); comorbidity; hazard ratio (HR); life expectancy (LE); life-years-lost (LYL); mean absolute error (MAE); odds ratio (OR)
Entry Date(s):	Date Created: 20260617 Date Completed: 20260617 Latest Revision: 20260618
Update Code:	20260619
DOI:	10.17849/insm-53-2-1-7.1B
PMID:	42307546
Βάση Δεδομένων:	MEDLINE

Περιγραφή
ISSN:	0743-6661
DOI:	10.17849/insm-53-2-1-7.1B