Academic Journal
Analysis of suitable areas for Phlebotomus chinensis as vector of visceral leishmaniasis-China.
| Τίτλος: | Analysis of suitable areas for Phlebotomus chinensis as vector of visceral leishmaniasis-China. |
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| Συγγραφείς: | Li Z; National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission (NHC) Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Shanghai, China., Ma B; Department of Disinfection and Vector Control, Dongying Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Dongying, China., Wei Z; Institute of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China., Zhou Z; National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission (NHC) Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Shanghai, China., Yang L; National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission (NHC) Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Shanghai, China., Chen J; National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission (NHC) Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Shanghai, China.; School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China., Zhang Y; National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission (NHC) Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Shanghai, China.; School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China., Li S; National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission (NHC) Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Shanghai, China.; School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China. |
| Πηγή: | Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology [Front Cell Infect Microbiol] 2026 May 20; Vol. 16, pp. 1846723. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 May 20 (Print Publication: 2026). |
| Τύπος έκδοσης: | Journal Article |
| Γλώσσα: | English |
| Στοιχεία περιοδικού: | Publisher: Frontiers Media SA Country of Publication: Switzerland NLM ID: 101585359 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2235-2988 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 22352988 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Front Cell Infect Microbiol Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: Lausanne : Frontiers Media SA |
| Ιατρικοί όροι (MeSH): | Phlebotomus*/parasitology , Phlebotomus*/physiology , Leishmaniasis, Visceral*/transmission , Leishmaniasis, Visceral*/epidemiology , Insect Vectors*/parasitology , Insect Vectors*/physiology, China/epidemiology ; Animals ; Ecosystem ; Climate ; Humans ; Temperature |
| Περίληψη: | Objective: Phlebotomus chinensis (P. chinensis) serves as the primary vector of visceral leishmaniasis, a persistent public health threat, and its suitable distribution range and expansion trends remain unclear. Methods: This study integrated two sets of baseline data, with 24,281 specimens collected from 45 counties across six provinces through field surveys and extra records from 475 distribution sites collated via literature retrieval. Climate data with 19 bioclimatic variables and geographic data including elevation, slope, aspect and vegetation coverage were obtained from open-access online databases (data retrieval cutoff: 2023). The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was applied to simulate habitat suitability. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate model performance, and the Jackknife test was conducted to determine the relative importance of each environmental factor. Results: The MaxEnt model produced an outstanding AUC value of 0.917 ± 0.007, demonstrating robust predictive performance. Vegetation coverage emerged as the primary environmental driver, followed by the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio_6), mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio_9), and annual precipitation (bio_12). The contemporary suitable habitat for P. chinensis on the Chinese mainland spans 2,295,360 km², constituting 23.91% of the total land area. Core suitable habitats concentrate in central Shanxi, northern and western Henan, southern Shaanxi and Gansu, southwestern Hebei, and northern Sichuan. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the suitable distribution range will expand to 2,834,001 km² (29.52%) by 2050 and 2,934,104 km² (30.56%) by 2070. The centroid of current suitable habitats is situated in Dagui Town, Pingli County, Ankang City, Shaanxi Province (109.137665°E, 32.438831°N), with a northwestward shift of 112.37 km by 2050 and 100.15 km by 2070. Conclusions: This study potentially delineates the suitable ecological niche of P. chinensis across the Chinese mainland, identifies key environmental drivers, and provides scientific references for regional risk assessment and targeted prevention measures. (Copyright © 2026 Li, Ma, Wei, Zhou, Yang, Chen, Zhang and Li.) |
| Competing Interests: | The author(s) declared that this work was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. |
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| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: MaxEnt model; jackknife; leishmania; suitable areas; visceral leishmaniasis |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20260605 Date Completed: 20260610 Latest Revision: 20260813 |
| Update Code: | 20260813 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC13230004 |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fcimb.2026.1846723 |
| PMID: | 42246007 |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 2235-2988 |
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| DOI: | 10.3389/fcimb.2026.1846723 |