Academic Journal
Predictive models for the shelf-life of Australian vacuum-packed beef and lamb: Development and evaluation.
| Τίτλος: | Predictive models for the shelf-life of Australian vacuum-packed beef and lamb: Development and evaluation. |
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| Συγγραφείς: | Kocharunchitt C; Centre for Food Safety and Innovation, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmanian, Private Bag 54, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Australia. Electronic address: Chawalit.Kocharunchitt@utas.edu.au., Jenson I; Centre for Food Safety and Innovation, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmanian, Private Bag 54, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Australia; Meat & Livestock Australia, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia., Kaur M; Centre for Food Safety and Innovation, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmanian, Private Bag 54, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Australia., Sumner J; Centre for Food Safety and Innovation, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmanian, Private Bag 54, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Australia; Meat & Livestock Australia, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia., Huynh L; Meat & Livestock Australia, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia., Bowman JP; Centre for Food Safety and Innovation, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmanian, Private Bag 54, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Australia., Ross T; Centre for Food Safety and Innovation, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmanian, Private Bag 54, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Australia. |
| Πηγή: | Food microbiology [Food Microbiol] 2026 Oct; Vol. 139, pp. 105107. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Apr 03. |
| Τύπος έκδοσης: | Journal Article; Evaluation Study |
| Γλώσσα: | English |
| Στοιχεία περιοδικού: | Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 8601127 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1095-9998 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 07400020 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Food Microbiol Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Publication: London : Elsevier Original Publication: London ; Orlando : Academic Press, c1984- |
| Ιατρικοί όροι (MeSH): | Food Packaging*/methods , Red Meat*/microbiology , Red Meat*/analysis , Meat*/microbiology , Meat*/analysis , Food Storage*, Bacteria/isolation & purification ; Bacteria/growth & development ; Animals ; Australia ; Cattle ; Vacuum ; Sheep ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; Food Microbiology |
| Περίληψη: | The Australian meat industry exports chilled vacuum-packed (VP) beef and lamb to more than one hundred markets with some of them involving containerised sea voyages of 40-50 days. On occasion, product may be subjected to loss of temperature control due to refrigeration problems, or delays leading to extended shipping times. Such deviations from expected temperature and time can have a pronounced effect on the shelf-life of the consignment, which, historically, has required sampling of the cargo for microbiological and sensory assessments prior to making a decision about the disposition of the product. This delay further adds to the loss of shelf-life. Here, we describe the development and evaluation of separate mathematical predictive models for Australian VP beef and lamb, and an accompanying Excel-based tool for rapid and accurate assessment of the remaining shelf-life based on odour quality, their initial total bacterial count, and elapsed time-temperature data. Evaluation against independent data (n = 20) showed a good agreement between predicted and observed shelf-life, with bias factors of 1.02 and 0.90, accuracy factors of 1.10 and 1.11, and mean absolute percentage errors across the validation set of 9.5% and 9.3% for beef and lamb, respectively. Although developed for Australian meat processing, packaging and distribution conditions, the models may also allow the international meat industry to manage their supply chains more effectively and reliably to ensure high quality meat products with excellent shelf-life. (Copyright © 2026 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.) |
| Competing Interests: | Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Cold storage; Quality shelf-life; Red meat; Supply chains |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20260529 Date Completed: 20260717 Latest Revision: 20260717 |
| Update Code: | 20260717 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.fm.2026.105107 |
| PMID: | 42215191 |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 1095-9998 |
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| DOI: | 10.1016/j.fm.2026.105107 |