Academic Journal
Robust modeling of cardiovascular mortality patterns (2008-2024): Applying quasi-Poisson regression to assess demographic and regional disparities.
| Τίτλος: | Robust modeling of cardiovascular mortality patterns (2008-2024): Applying quasi-Poisson regression to assess demographic and regional disparities. |
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| Συγγραφείς: | Matos EP; Clinical Simulation and Technological Development Laboratory, State University of Maringá, 87020-900 Maringá, Paraná, Brazil., Rabito LBF; Clinical Simulation and Technological Development Laboratory, State University of Maringá, 87020-900 Maringá, Paraná, Brazil., Barreto RS; Department of Health Sciences, State University of Santa Cruz, 45662-900 Ilhéus, Bahia, Brazil., de Souza NC; Clinical Simulation and Technological Development Laboratory, State University of Maringá, 87020-900 Maringá, Paraná, Brazil., Dos Santos Oliveira JA; Clinical Simulation and Technological Development Laboratory, State University of Maringá, 87020-900 Maringá, Paraná, Brazil. Electronic address: joaoarthur_oliveira@hotmail.com., Sanches RCN; Clinical Simulation and Technological Development Laboratory, State University of Maringá, 87020-900 Maringá, Paraná, Brazil. |
| Πηγή: | International journal of cardiology [Int J Cardiol] 2026 Jun 15; Vol. 453, pp. 134452. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Mar 21. |
| Τύπος έκδοσης: | Journal Article |
| Γλώσσα: | English |
| Στοιχεία περιοδικού: | Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 8200291 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1874-1754 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 01675273 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Int J Cardiol Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Publication: Amsterdam : Elsevier Original Publication: Amsterdam : Elsevier/North-Holland Biomedical Press, c1981- |
| Ιατρικοί όροι (MeSH): | Cardiovascular Diseases*/mortality , Cardiovascular Diseases*/diagnosis , Demography*/trends, Brazil/epidemiology ; Humans ; Female ; Male ; Aged, 80 and over ; Aged ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Poisson Distribution |
| Περίληψη: | Background: This study examined spatiotemporal patterns and demographic determinants of mortality from diseases of the circulatory system (DCS) in Brazil, 2008-2024. Methods: We conducted a nationwide ecological time-series study using quasi-Poisson regression with a population offset to model death counts and estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Univariable and multivariable models assessed associations of macroregion, sex, age group, and ICD-10 diagnostic category with DCS mortality, adjusting for long-term time trends. Results: Multivariable analysis showed a persistent annual increase of 0.62% in DCS mortality (IRR 1.0062, 95% CI 1.0047-1.0077). Marked regional disparities were observed, with the North region exhibiting substantially lower mortality rates (IRR 0.109, 95% CI 0.105-0.112) relative to the Southeast. Mortality rates were lower in females than in males (IRR 0.906, 95% CI 0.893-0.919). Age showed the strongest association with mortality: individuals aged ≥80 years had mortality rates 48 times higher (IRR 48.36, 95% CI 44.34-52.74) than those aged 20-29. Conclusions: Cardiovascular mortality in Brazil increased between 2008 and 2024, reversing prior declines. The increase occurred across demographic groups and regions, suggesting a widespread epidemiological shift. These findings underscore the need for strengthened prevention strategies integrating clinical risk reduction with action on the social determinants of cardiovascular health. (Copyright © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.) |
| Competing Interests: | Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Ecological analysis; Incidence rate ratios; Population mortality; Time trends |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20260323 Date Completed: 20260713 Latest Revision: 20260713 |
| Update Code: | 20260714 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijcard.2026.134452 |
| PMID: | 41871787 |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 1874-1754 |
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| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijcard.2026.134452 |