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Recovery-induced tipping in Stommel's kicked ocean box model.

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Title: Recovery-induced tipping in Stommel's kicked ocean box model.
Authors: Kelly P; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton College, Northfield, Minnesota, United States of America., Leng X; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton College, Northfield, Minnesota, United States of America., Cogan P; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton College, Northfield, Minnesota, United States of America., Jing A; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton College, Northfield, Minnesota, United States of America., Meyer K; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton College, Northfield, Minnesota, United States of America.
Source: PloS one [PLoS One] 2026 Feb 03; Vol. 21 (2), pp. e0342171. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Feb 03 (Print Publication: 2026).
Publication Type: Journal Article
Language: English
Journal Info: Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101285081 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1932-6203 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19326203 NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS One Subsets: MEDLINE
Imprint Name(s): Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science
MeSH Terms: Oceans and Seas* , Water Movements* , Models, Theoretical*, Salinity ; Seawater ; Fresh Water
Abstract: Ocean circulation, a key driver of global climate, is subject to recurrent disturbances including freshwater input from glacial melt. Stommel's idealized two-box model predicts two distinct stable regimes of thermohaline ocean circulation and offers a conceptual framework in which to explore the effects of salinity perturbations. A study that superimposed discrete salinity kicks onto the flow of the otherwise continuous model revealed a counterintuitive phenomenon: extending the recovery period between salinity kicks caused a trajectory to tip into an alternative basin of attraction. Here we analyze the recovery-induced tipping phenomenon in Stommel's kicked model across a broader swath of disturbance parameters, finding that the phenomenon is robust across a significant set of kick sizes. Furthermore, bifurcation analysis of flow-kick fixed points reveals that recovery-induced tipping stems from an alternative attractor migrating across an original separatrix as flow times vary. This migration also occurs in a continuous analog of salinity perturbation. Although the recovery times associated with seasonal or decadal freshwater influxes far exceed those associated with recovery-induced tipping, the qualitative dynamics we uncover in Stommel's perturbed model alert us that similar phenomena may occur in other models and real-world systems.
(Copyright: © 2026 Kelly et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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Entry Date(s): Date Created: 20260203 Date Completed: 20260706 Latest Revision: 20260706
Update Code: 20260707
PubMed Central ID: PMC12867227
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0342171
PMID: 41632799
Database: MEDLINE
Description
ISSN:1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0342171