Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
| Τίτλος: |
基于SSP- RCP 情景的长江中游城市群生态系统服务供需匹配模拟研究. |
| Alternate Title: |
Simulation study on matching supply and demand of ecosystem services in the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River based on the SSP- RCP scenario. |
| Συγγραφείς: |
凌嘉欣1, 罗婷2, 曾杰1, 陈万旭1, 周昱恒3 |
| Πηγή: |
Resources Development & Market. Sep2026, Vol. 42 Issue 9, p1281-1292. 12p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: |
*Environmental protection, *Resource allocation, *Metropolitan areas, Ecosystem services, Riparian areas, Computer simulation, Climate change models |
| Γεωγραφικοί όροι: |
Yangtze River (China) |
| Abstract (English): |
Clarifying the supply demand matching characteristics of ecosystem services in urban agglomerations and predicting their future changes under multiple scenarios are critical for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development. This paper employed the IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) coupled with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPS), high-reso-lution land use simulation data, the InVEST model, and spatial statistical tools to analyze ecosystem service supply demand matching in the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2020 and 2030. The results indicated the following: (1) Under the three SSP- RCP scenarios, the supply demand ratios for water re-tention and habitat quality services in the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River were 0.011,-0.004, and -0.009; as well as 0.011, -0.017, and 0.016, respectively. This suggested that the region faced a risk of imbalance in the sup-ply demand matching of ecosystem services in the future, and compared to 2020, the supply demand matching tends to deteriorate under the SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios, while the SSP1 scenario showed a relatively stable trend. (2) Mountainous and hilly areas in the northwest, south, and southeast showed better matching, while plains like Jianghan, Poyang Lake, and Dongting Lake exhibited poorer conditions. (3) SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios were preferable for achieving high quality development and ecological security in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Abstract (Chinese): |
厘清城市群生态系统服务的供需匹配特征, 并对其未来变化进行多情景预测, 是促进城市群自然生态保护和高质量发展的重要基础。基于 IPCC 共享社会经济路径 (SSPs) 与典型浓度路径 (RCPs) 耦合情景框架, 结合高精度未来土地利用模拟数据, 采用 InVEST 模型和空间统计分析工具, 对 2020 年和 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5 情景下 2030 年长江中游城市群的生态系统服务供需匹配特征进行了分析。结果显示: (1) 3 种 SSP-RCP 情景下, 长江中游城市群水源涵养和生境质量服务供需比依次为-0.011、-0.004 和-0.009; -0.011、-0.017 和-0.016, 表明未来该地区生态系统服务供需匹配面临失衡风险, 且与 2020 年相比, 除 SSP1 情景外其余两种情景供需匹配均趋于恶化。 (2) 不同情景下, 长江中游城市群西北部、 南部和东南部的山地、丘陵地区生态系统服务供需匹配状况均较好, 而江汉平原、鄱阳湖平原和洞庭湖平原等地区供需匹配状况则较差。 (3) 在区域发展路径选择上, SSP1-2.6 和 SSP2-4.5 情景是长江中游城市群实现高质量发展与高水平生态安全的优先选择。 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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