Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
| Τίτλος: |
Forecasting Climate Change Using a Multivariate Cointegrated System. |
| Συγγραφείς: |
Castle, Jennifer L.1 (AUTHOR) jennifer.castle@magd.ox.ac.uk, Doornik, Jurgen A.2 (AUTHOR), Hendry, David F.2 (AUTHOR), Jackson, Luke P.3 (AUTHOR) |
| Πηγή: |
Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics. Aug2026, Vol. 88 Issue 4, p783-802. 20p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: |
Climate change forecasts, Radiative forcing, Statistical models, Greenhouse gases, Relative sea level change, Ocean temperature |
| Περίληψη: |
A cointegrated vector equilibrium correction model of key climate variables including sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, Arctic sea‐ice extent and sea‐level change is built, driven by radiative forcing in which a stochastic trend arises due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. A valid and congruent statistical model requires saturation estimation to model breaks in trends, while also conditioning on natural radiative forcings and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The model is stable over 150 years, reflecting the slow adjustment of the deep oceans to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, and predicts an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.6°C. Projections out to 2100 highlight the many uncertainties over the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
|
Copyright of Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: |
Business Source Index |