Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
| Τίτλος: |
Künftige Entwicklung der Bevölkerung in Deutschland: Schrumpfung und Alterung viel dramatischer als bislang vermutet. |
| Συγγραφείς: |
Lehmann, Robert1, Ragnitz, Joachim2 |
| Πηγή: |
ifo Dresden Berichtet: Ueber Konjunktur, Struktur, Wirtschaftspolitik. Jan/Feb2026, Vol. 33 Issue 1, p4-8. 5p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: |
*Demographic change, *Economic impact, *Emigration & immigration, *Social security, Population forecasting, Older people, Germans, Birth rate |
| Γεωγραφικοί όροι: |
Germany |
| Abstract (English): |
The article analyzes the new population projection of the Federal Statistical Office for Germany, which, compared to the previous 15th Coordinated Population Projection (KBV) from 2022, forecasts a significantly stronger decline and aging of the population by 2070. While the 15th KBV assumed an approximately constant population size, the 16th KBV expects a decrease of around ten percent, mainly due to lower birth rates and reduced net immigration in the coming years. Additionally, the 16th KBV is based on an updated, lower population baseline from the 2022 census, which further dampens the long-term demographic development. The eastern German states with large areas are particularly affected, with a population decline of about 22 percent, while the city-states could see slight increases. The demographic changes will have significant impacts on the economy, social security systems, and infrastructure, which is why political measures should be adapted early to these challenges. [Extracted from the article] |
| Abstract (German): |
Das Statistische Bundesamt hat eine neue Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung präsentiert, deren Ergebnisse erheblich von bisherigen Erwartungen abweichen. Wurde bisher mit einer nahezu konstanten Bevölkerung bis zum Jahr 2070 gerechnet, wird nun ein Rückgang um zehn Prozent erwartet. Dieser Beitrag geht den Ursachen für die sehr unterschiedlichen Berechnungsergebnisse nach. Die Analyse zeigt, dass vor allem die unterschiedlichen Annahmen über den Verlauf der Nettozuwanderung nach Deutschland ausschlaggebend für die abweichenden Ergebnisse sind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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