Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
| Τίτλος: |
Forecasting school enrollments in the Australian Capital Territory. |
| Συγγραφείς: |
Shen, Tianyu1 (AUTHOR), Raymer, James1 (AUTHOR), Hendy, Caroline2 (AUTHOR) |
| Πηγή: |
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society). Oct2025, Vol. 188 Issue 4, p1107-1124. 18p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: |
*Forecasting, *Monte Carlo method, School enrollment, Population forecasting, Internal migration, Confidence intervals |
| Γεωγραφικοί όροι: |
Australian Capital Territory |
| Περίληψη: |
School enrollment forecasts are vital for effective planning. This study introduces a probabilistic multiregional population projection model, which accounts for different components, including preschool entries, migration, grade progression, and graduations. Using different distributions with a cohort component projection and Monte Carlo simulation, this paper forecasts student enrollments for each school and academic year level in the Australian Capital Territory based on the annual record-level administrative data. In the in-sample validation tests, the model's overall performance is robust, and the probabilistic design offers reliable prediction intervals reflecting the variation in observed values. The paper ends with a discussion on the importance of prediction intervals for informing school planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Βάση Δεδομένων: |
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