Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
| Τίτλος: |
A sea ice free Arctic: CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track abrupt-127k experimental protocol and motivation. |
| Συγγραφείς: |
Sime, Louise C.1 (AUTHOR) lsim@bas.ac.uk, Diamond, Rachel1,2 (AUTHOR), Stepanek, Christian3 (AUTHOR), Brierley, Chris4 (AUTHOR), Schroeder, David5 (AUTHOR), Kageyama, Masa6 (AUTHOR), Pollock, Matthew4 (AUTHOR), Malmierca-Vallet, Irene1 (AUTHOR), Blockley, Ed7 (AUTHOR), West, Alex7 (AUTHOR), Feltham, Danny5 (AUTHOR), Ridley, Jeff7 (AUTHOR), Braconnot, Pascale6 (AUTHOR), Williams, Charles J. R.4,8 (AUTHOR), Shi, Xiaoxu9 (AUTHOR), Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.10 (AUTHOR), Macarewich, Sophia I.10 (AUTHOR), Ramos Buarque, Silvana11 (AUTHOR), Zhang, Qiong12 (AUTHOR), LeGrande, Allegra13,14 (AUTHOR) |
| Πηγή: |
Geoscientific Model Development. 2026, Vol. 19 Issue 13, p5881-5905. 25p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: |
*Sea ice, *Climate change forecasts, *Atmospheric models, *Energy budget (Geophysics), *Ablation (Glaciology), *Radiative forcing |
| Γεωγραφικοί όροι: |
Arctic regions, Arctic Ocean |
| Περίληψη: |
Given that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer within the next ten to 20 years, accurately predicting low-ice states is of crucial importance. Paleo-evidence shows that the strong orbitally-induced high latitude insolation anomaly at 127 000 years ago (127 ky), of around +70 Wm-2 in the Arctic during spring-summer, led to warm conditions and an Arctic that was occasionally or often ice-free during summer. Building on two Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs): the Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project and the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, we propose an Assessment Fast Track experiment, abrupt-127k, focusing on this seasonally ice-free, or near ice-free, Arctic at 127 ky. The abrupt-127k experiment is initialised from a piControl simulation and abruptly imposes observed values for the insolation distribution and greenhouse gas forcing at 127 ky. It provides a new opportunity to evaluate models used to compute climate projections, both against paleo-evidence and each other, during a known low Arctic sea ice state. As CMIP models are not usually tuned to paleo observations, abrupt-127k represents a true "out-of-sample" test. The abrupt-127k experiment has four key scientific objectives, to: ascertain the simulated Arctic sea ice state, including the presence and characteristics of last-ice areas; evaluate the simulated climates using Arctic paleo-evidence; characterise the central Arctic surface energy budget; and analyse the ice budget including ice melt, growth, and transport. We show that a large Arctic ice response will manifest within the first 30 years of the simulation, thus a single 100-year long run is sufficient for these objectives. Modelling groups are requested to follow standard CMIP output protocol for analysis, including the use of standard "fixed-length" output. Given abrupt-127k is similar in setup to abrupt-2xCO2 and abrupt-4xCO2 CMIP7 experiments, combined analysis of these abrupt-experiments will facilitate understanding of the impacts of instantaneous radiative forcing in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: |
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