Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
| Τίτλος: |
Long-Term Volcanic Signal in 21st-Century Climate Projections with a 25-Member Stochastic Ensemble Using SOCOL-MPIOM. |
| Συγγραφείς: |
Tkachenko, Margarita A.1,2 (AUTHOR), Rozanov, Eugene V.1,2,3 (AUTHOR) eugene.rozanov@pmodwrc.ch |
| Πηγή: |
Atmosphere. Jun2026, Vol. 17 Issue 6, p577. 27p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: |
*Volcanic eruptions, *Climate change forecasts, *Precipitation anomalies, *Seasonal temperature variations, *Atmospheric models, *Statistical ensembles |
| Περίληψη: |
Future volcanic eruptions are largely omitted from CMIP6 simulations, thereby increasing the uncertainty in 21st-century climate projections. We performed an 80-year (2020–2100) 25-member stochastic ensemble simulation with the climate model SOCOL-MPIOM, driven by the SSP3-7.0 forcing scenario, and introduced five stochastically distributed tropical eruptions—three strong, one moderate, and one weak—for each ensemble member (hereafter, SV run). We analyse volcanic influence by comparing the SV run results against a single volcanic-free baseline simulation under the same anthropogenic forcing scenario. Five eruptions over the 80-year simulation period leave the trends of the major climate indicators statistically indistinguishable from those of the volcanic-free baseline at the global and annual mean scales. However, on local and seasonal scales, volcanic activity can substantially alter the results of the volcanic-free simulation. For example, over Northern Europe, volcanic eruptions produce winter temperature warming of up to 1.0 K (about 30% of the warming in the reference run) and an annual precipitation deficit of 36 mm yr−1. This emphasises the need to include volcanic eruptions for more accurate projections of future climate. Probabilistic analysis of the SV ensemble shows that the annual maximum daily temperature (TXx) exceeds +0.5 K over 16% of global land with more-likely-than-not probability, a perturbation absent in standard CMIP6 results. Since our scenario composition targets the upper bound of plausible 21st-century volcanic activity, these exceedance areas represent near-maximum rather than most-probable estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: |
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