Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
| Τίτλος: |
Projected Precipitation and Temperature Changes in Myanmar Under SSP Scenarios Using CMIP6 Models. |
| Συγγραφείς: |
Khaing, Min1 (AUTHOR) uminkhaing75@gmail.com, Zin, Win Win1 (AUTHOR), Kawasaki, Akiyuki2,3,4 (AUTHOR) |
| Πηγή: |
Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology. May2026, Vol. 65 Issue 5, p1-25. 25p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: |
*Climate change forecasts, *Meteorological precipitation, *Climate change, *Temperature, *Climate change models, *Extreme weather, *Atmospheric models |
| Γεωγραφικοί όροι: |
Myanmar |
| Περίληψη: |
This study examines future changes in precipitation and temperature across Myanmar using bias-corrected multi-model ensembles from the CMIP6 archive under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Thirteen general circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated against observed data from 38 meteorological stations (1985–2014), and seven models were selected based on performance metrics. Bias correction was applied using the power transformation method for precipitation and variance scaling for temperature, and its performance was assessed for reproducing both baseline climate and extreme indices. Decomposition of uncertainty sources for the baseline period revealed that model and temporal variability are the dominant contributors to projection uncertainty. Future projections were analyzed for near (2021–2050), mid (2051–2080), and far future (2081–2100) periods. Results indicate increasing precipitation across most regions, particularly during the rainy season, with the central dry zone and coastal areas showing the most notable changes. Minimum temperatures show a consistent warming trend across all scenarios and regions. In contrast, maximum temperatures exhibit mixed trends under SSP2-4.5 but a pronounced increase under SSP5-8.5, with the northern hilly region projected to warm by up to 4.9°C by the end of the century. Extreme indices also show a clear intensification of extremes toward the end of the century, especially under SSP5-8.5. These findings offer essential insights into Myanmar's future climate risks and provide a scientific foundation for developing region-specific climate adaptation and resilience strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: |
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