Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
| Τίτλος: |
Diagnosis of the Contribution of Internal Climate Variability to Global Surface Temperature Projection Under Future Warming. |
| Συγγραφείς: |
Oh, Sae‐Yoon1 (AUTHOR), Yeh, Sang‐Wook1 (AUTHOR) swyeh@ewha.ac.kr, Kirtman, Benjamin P.2 (AUTHOR) |
| Πηγή: |
Geophysical Research Letters. May2026, Vol. 53 Issue 10, p1-10. 10p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: |
*Climate change, *Climate change forecasts, *Earth temperature, *Atmospheric models, *Sea ice, *Ocean temperature, El Niño |
| Γεωγραφικοί όροι: |
Pacific Ocean, Arctic regions |
| Περίληψη: |
Internal climate variability (ICV) is a critical source of uncertainty in global surface temperature (GST) projections. We find regional drivers of ICV in GST projections and investigate their evolution under anthropogenic forcing. Among four CMIP6 large ensemble simulations under historical and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, we focus on MIROC6 and CanESM5, which show contrasting behaviors of ICV related to GST. In MIROC6, ICV, quantified by ensemble variance, increases markedly from the historical to the future period, primarily driven by the tropical variability including El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Conversely, CanESM5 exhibits stable ICV from the historical to the future period. In CanESM5, while both ENSO and Barents‐Kara Sea ice are key drivers in the historical period, ENSO dominates in the future. These contrasts are associated with forced mean‐state changes in tropical Pacific and North Atlantic sea surface temperature. Plain Language Summary: Climate's natural variability provides an irreducible range for future global surface temperature (GST) projections, making its understanding crucial for risk assessment and decision‐making. Using CMIP6 models, we show that the GST projection range due to internal climate variability is not consistent under future warming. We then focus on two models under the same scenario but exhibiting contrasting behaviors. In one model, the GST range grows significantly, driven by enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central‐to‐eastern tropical Pacific. In the other model, however, the range remains stable as increasing tropical SST variability is offset by decreasing Arctic variability from Barents‐Kara Sea ice loss. These divergences align with background state shifts, including weakened equatorial SST gradients and North Atlantic warming. Accurately representing both tropical and Arctic processes is essential for reliable GST projections. Key Points: The relative roles and contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to global surface temperature (GST) uncertainty are evaluatedUncertainty in GST due to ICV is primarily driven by contributions from the tropics, in particular, during the SSP5‐8.5 periodChanges in the tropical Pacific and the Gulf Stream mean SST are linked to changes in the contribution of ICV to GST uncertainty [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: |
Academic Search Index |