The contribution of Greek-owned shipping to the Greek economy: Methodological issues and an estimation proposal
Sea transport export receipts, which almost exclusively relate to ocean-going shipping, have historically covered a significant part of Greece’s perennial deficit in the trade of goods and in the current account. By the use of the Revealed Comparative Advantage indices, it is shown that Greece has a...
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| Κύριοι συγγραφείς: | , |
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| Άλλοι συγγραφείς: | |
| Γλώσσα: | English |
| Δημοσίευση: |
2023
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| Θέματα: | |
| Διαθέσιμο Online: | http://hdl.handle.net/11610/24740 |
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| Περίληψη: | Sea transport export receipts, which almost exclusively relate to ocean-going shipping, have historically covered a significant part of Greece’s perennial deficit in the trade of goods and in the current account. By the use of the Revealed Comparative Advantage indices, it is shown that Greece has a comparative advantage in exporting sea transport services.
Recently, in 2015, the compilation methodology for the sea transport services receipts in the Greek Balance of Payment was changed. The new (post-2015) compilation methodology is based on a statistical model - the Greek Shipping Estimation Model (GSEM) - that uses administrative data and data from international shipping databases. The international practice in other sea nations, especially those in the EU that were analysed in the thesis, suggests that the survey method is the preferred one for the compilation of the BoP accounts.
The determinants of the sea transport service receipts in the Greek BoP in the post-2015 period were investigated with the use of the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing methodology - that was proposed by Pesaran et al (2001) - for the existence of cointegration between the variables. The ARDL bounds testing methodology is a relatively new one and has only recently found its way in the maritime economics empirical literature. The empirical analysis shows that the Greek Shipping Index (GSI), which is a Greek fleet specific freight revenue index, the cost of bunkers and the size of the active Greek-controlled fleet are the determinants of the sea transport receipts in the BoP in the post-2015 period. However, only the GSI and the bunker cost seem to be significant in the pre-2015 period, along with credit to shipping, a variable that it is not available anymore. These results indicate that the determinants before and after the compilation methodology are not the same, though the GSI is still a significant determinant. The thesis proceeds into backcasting the 2002-2014 period based on the post-2015 model with the aim to identifying the existence of any variation or convergence. The results indicate that the backcasted series is consistently below the old (pre-2015) methodology time series; however, towards the end of the backcasting period the two series start to converge. |
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