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Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England

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Τίτλος: Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England
Συγγραφείς: Leclerc, QJ, Fuller, NM, Keogh, RH, Diaz-Ordaz, K, Sekula, R, Semple, MG, Baillie, JK, Openshaw, PJM, Carson, G, Alex, B, Bach, B, Barclay, WS, Bogaert, D, Chand, M, Cooke, GS, Docherty, AB, Dunning, J, da Silva Filipe, A, Fletcher, T, Green, CA, Harrison, EM, Hiscox, JA, Ho, AYW, Horby, PW, Ijaz, S, Khoo, S, Klenerman, P, Law, A, Lim, WS, Mentzer, AJ, Merson, L, Meynert, AM, Noursadeghi, M, Moore, SC, Palmarini, M, Paxton, WA, Pollakis, G, Price, N, Rambaut, A, Robertson, DL, Russell, CD, Sancho-Shimizu, V, Scott, JT, de Silva, T, Sigfrid, L, Solomon, T, Sriskandan, S, Stuart, D, Summers, C, Tedder, RS, Thomson, EC, Thompson, AAR, Thwaites, RS, Turtle, LCW, Zambon, M, Hardwick, H, Donohue, C, Lyons, R, Griffiths, F, Oosthuyzen, W, Norman, L, Pius, R, Drake, TM, Fairfield, CJ, Knight, S, Mclean, KA, Murphy, D, Shaw, CA, Dalton, J, Lee, J, Plotkin, D, Girvan, M, Saviciute, E, Roberts, S, Harrison, J, Marsh, L, Connor, M, Halpin, S, Jackson, C, Gamble, C, Petersen, C, Mullaney, S, Leeming, G, Wham, M, Clohisey, S, Hendry, R, Scott-Brown, J, Greenhalf, W, Shaw, V, McDonald, S, Keating, S, Ahmed, KA, Armstrong, JA, Ashworth, M, Asiimwe, IG, Bakshi, S, Barlow, SL, Booth, L, Brennan, B, Bullock, K, Catterall, BWA, Clark, JJ, Clarke, EA, Cole, S, Cooper, L, Cox, H, Davis, C, Dincarslan, O, Dunn, C, Dyer, P, Elliott, A, Evans, A, Finch, L, Fisher, LWS, Foster, T, Garcia-Dorival, I, Gunning, P, Hartley, C, Ho, A, Jensen, RL, Jones, CB, Jones, TR, Khandaker, S, King, K, Kiy, RT, Koukorava, C, Lake, A, Lant, S, Latawiec, D, Lavelle-Langham, L, Lefteri, D, Lett, L, Livoti, LA, Mancini, M, McEvoy, L, McLauchlan, J, Metelmann, S, Miah, NS, Middleton, J, Mitchell, J, Murphy, EG, Penrice-Randal, R, Pilgrim, J, Prince, T, Reynolds, W, Ridley, PM, Sales, D, Shaw, VE, Shears, RK, Small, B, Subramaniam, KS, Szemiel, A, Taggart, A, Tanianis-Hughes, J, Thomas, J, Trochu, E, van Tonder, L, Wilcock, E, Zhang, JE, Adeniji, K, Agranoff, D, Agwuh, K, Ail, D, Alegria, A, Angus, B, Ashish, A, Atkinson, D, Bari, S, Barlow, G, Barnass, S, Barrett, N, Bassford, C, Baxter, D, Beadsworth, M, Bernatoniene, J, Berridge, J, Best, N, Bothma, P, Brealey, D, Brittain-Long, R, Bulteel, N, Burden, T, Burtenshaw, A, Caruth, V, Chadwick, D, Chambler, D, Chee, N, Child, J, Chukkambotla, S, Clark, T, Collini, P, Cosgrove, C, Cupitt, J, Cutino-Moguel, M-T, Dark, P, Dawson, C, Dervisevic, S, Donnison, P, Douthwaite, S, DuRand, I, Dushianthan, A, Dyer, T, Evans, C, Eziefula, C, Fegan, C, Finn, A, Fullerton, D, Garg, S, Garg, A, Gkrania-Klotsas, E, Godden, J, Goldsmith, A, Graham, C, Hardy, E, Hartshorn, S, Harvey, D, Havalda, P, Hawcutt, DB, Hobrok, M, Hodgson, L, Hormis, A, Jacobs, M, Jain, S, Jennings, P, Kaliappan, A, Kasipandian, V, Kegg, S, Kelsey, M, Kendall, J, Kerrison, C, Kerslake, I, Koch, O, Koduri, G, Koshy, G, Laha, S, Laird, S, Larkin, S, Leiner, T, Lillie, P, Limb, J, Linnett, V, Little, J, MacMahon, M, MacNaughton, E, Mankregod, R, Masson, H, Matovu, E, McCullough, K, McEwen, R, Meda, M, Mills, G, Minton, J, Mirfenderesky, M, Mohandas, K, Mok, Q, Moon, J, Moore, E, Morgan, P, Morris, C, Mortimore, K, Moses, S, Mpenge, M, Mulla, R, Murphy, M, Nagel, M, Nagarajan, T, Nelson, M, Otahal, I, Pais, M, Panchatsharam, S, Paraiso, H, Patel, B, Pattison, N, Pepperell, J, Peters, M, Phull, M, Pintus, S, Pooni, JS, Post, F, Price, D, Prout, R, Rae, N, Reschreiter, H, Reynolds, T, Richardson, N, Roberts, M, Roberts, D, Rose, A, Rousseau, G, Ryan, B, Saluja, T, Shah, A, Shanmuga, P, Sharma, A, Shawcross, A, Sizer, J, Shankar-Hari, M, Smith, R, Snelson, C, Spittle, N, Staines, N, Stambach, T, Stewart, R, Subudhi, P, Szakmany, T, Tatham, K, Thompson, C, Thompson, R, Tridente, A, Tupper-Carey, D, Twagira, M, Ustianowski, A, Vallotton, N, Vincent-Smith, L, Visuvanathan, S, Vuylsteke, A, Waddy, S, Wake, R, Walden, A, Welters, I, Whitehouse, T, Whittaker, P, Whittington, A, Wijesinghe, M, Williams, M, Wilson, L, Wilson, S, Winchester, S, Wiselka, M, Wolverson, A, Wooton, DG, Workman, A, Yates, B, Young, P, Quaife, M, Jarvis, CI, Meakin, SR, Quilty, BJ, Prem, K, Villabona-Arenas, CJ, Sun, FY, Abbas, K, Auzenbergs, M, Gimma, A, Tully, DC, Sherratt, K, Rosello, A, Davies, NG, Liu, Y, Lowe, R, Gibbs, HP, Waterlow, NR, Edmunds, WJ, Simons, D, Medley, G, Munday, JD, Flasche, S, Sandmann, FG, Showering, A, Eggo, RM, Chan, Y-WD, Pearson, CAB, Kucharski, AJ, Foss, AM, Russell, TW, Bosse, NI, Jit, M, Abbott, S, Williams, J, Endo, A, Clifford, S, Gore-Langton, GR, Klepac, P, Brady, O, Hellewell, J, Funk, S, van Zandvoort, K, Barnard, RC, Nightingale, ES, Jombart, T, Atkins, KE, Procter, SR, Knight, GM
Στοιχεία εκδότη: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Έτος έκδοσης: 2021
Συλλογή: White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York)
Περιγραφή: Background Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient’s “bed pathway” - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. Methods We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. Results In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: “Ward, CC, Ward”, “Ward, CC”, “CC” and “CC, Ward”. Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. Conclusions We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19. Trial registration The ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively ...
Τύπος εγγράφου: article in journal/newspaper
Περιγραφή αρχείου: text
Γλώσσα: English
ISSN: 1472-6963
Relation: https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/181504/1/Importance%20of%20patient%20bed%20pathways%20and%20length%20of%20stay%20differences%20in%20predicting%20COVID-19%20hospital%20bed%20occupancy%20in%20England.pdf; Leclerc, QJ, Fuller, NM, Keogh, RH et al. (384 more authors) (2021) Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England. BMC Health Services Research, 21. 566. ISSN: 1472-6963
Διαθεσιμότητα: https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/181504/
Rights: cc_by_4
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J</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22MacMahon%2C+M%22">MacMahon, M</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22MacNaughton%2C+E%22">MacNaughton, E</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mankregod%2C+R%22">Mankregod, R</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Masson%2C+H%22">Masson, H</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Matovu%2C+E%22">Matovu, E</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22McCullough%2C+K%22">McCullough, K</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22McEwen%2C+R%22">McEwen, R</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Meda%2C+M%22">Meda, M</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mills%2C+G%22">Mills, G</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Minton%2C+J%22">Minton, J</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mirfenderesky%2C+M%22">Mirfenderesky, M</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mohandas%2C+K%22">Mohandas, K</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mok%2C+Q%22">Mok, Q</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Moon%2C+J%22">Moon, J</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Moore%2C+E%22">Moore, E</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Morgan%2C+P%22">Morgan, P</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Morris%2C+C%22">Morris, C</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mortimore%2C+K%22">Mortimore, K</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Moses%2C+S%22">Moses, S</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mpenge%2C+M%22">Mpenge, M</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mulla%2C+R%22">Mulla, R</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Murphy%2C+M%22">Murphy, M</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Nagel%2C+M%22">Nagel, M</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Nagarajan%2C+T%22">Nagarajan, T</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" 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T</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shah%2C+A%22">Shah, A</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shanmuga%2C+P%22">Shanmuga, P</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sharma%2C+A%22">Sharma, A</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shawcross%2C+A%22">Shawcross, A</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sizer%2C+J%22">Sizer, J</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shankar-Hari%2C+M%22">Shankar-Hari, M</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Smith%2C+R%22">Smith, R</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Snelson%2C+C%22">Snelson, C</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Spittle%2C+N%22">Spittle, N</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Staines%2C+N%22">Staines, N</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Stambach%2C+T%22">Stambach, T</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Stewart%2C+R%22">Stewart, R</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Subudhi%2C+P%22">Subudhi, P</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Szakmany%2C+T%22">Szakmany, T</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tatham%2C+K%22">Tatham, K</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Thompson%2C+C%22">Thompson, C</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Thompson%2C+R%22">Thompson, R</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tridente%2C+A%22">Tridente, A</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tupper-Carey%2C+D%22">Tupper-Carey, D</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Twagira%2C+M%22">Twagira, M</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ustianowski%2C+A%22">Ustianowski, A</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Vallotton%2C+N%22">Vallotton, N</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Vincent-Smith%2C+L%22">Vincent-Smith, L</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" 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– Name: Publisher
  Label: Publisher Information
  Group: PubInfo
  Data: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
– Name: DatePubCY
  Label: Publication Year
  Group: Date
  Data: 2021
– Name: Subset
  Label: Collection
  Group: HoldingsInfo
  Data: White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York)
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Description
  Group: Ab
  Data: Background Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient’s “bed pathway” - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. Methods We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. Results In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: “Ward, CC, Ward”, “Ward, CC”, “CC” and “CC, Ward”. Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. Conclusions We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19. Trial registration The ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively ...
– Name: TypeDocument
  Label: Document Type
  Group: TypDoc
  Data: article in journal/newspaper
– Name: Format
  Label: File Description
  Group: SrcInfo
  Data: text
– Name: Language
  Label: Language
  Group: Lang
  Data: English
– Name: ISSN
  Label: ISSN
  Group: ISSN
  Data: 1472-6963
– Name: NoteTitleSource
  Label: Relation
  Group: SrcInfo
  Data: https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/181504/1/Importance%20of%20patient%20bed%20pathways%20and%20length%20of%20stay%20differences%20in%20predicting%20COVID-19%20hospital%20bed%20occupancy%20in%20England.pdf; Leclerc, QJ, Fuller, NM, Keogh, RH et al. (384 more authors) (2021) Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England. BMC Health Services Research, 21. 566. ISSN: 1472-6963
– Name: URL
  Label: Availability
  Group: URL
  Data: https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/181504/
– Name: Copyright
  Label: Rights
  Group: Cpyrght
  Data: cc_by_4
– Name: AN
  Label: Accession Number
  Group: ID
  Data: edsbas.AD08B8BA
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsbas&AN=edsbas.AD08B8BA
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      – TitleFull: Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England
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      – PersonEntity:
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      – PersonEntity:
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      – PersonEntity:
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      – PersonEntity:
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      – PersonEntity:
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