Academic Journal

Developing a Diagnostic Multivariable Prediction Model for Urinary Tract Cancer in Patients Referred with Haematuria: Results from the IDENTIFY Collaborative Study

Bibliographic Details
Title: Developing a Diagnostic Multivariable Prediction Model for Urinary Tract Cancer in Patients Referred with Haematuria: Results from the IDENTIFY Collaborative Study
Authors: Khadhouri, S., Gallagher, K. M., MacKenzie, K. R., Shah, T. T., Gao, C., Moore, S., Zimmermann, E. F., Edison, E., Jefferies, M., Nambiar, A., Anbarasan, T., Mannas, M. P., Lee, T., Marra, G., Gómez Rivas, J., Marcq, G., Assmus, M. A., Uçar, T., Claps, F., Boltri, M., La Montagna, G., Burnhope, T., Nkwam, N., Austin, T., Boxall, N. E., Downey, A. P., Sukhu, T. A., Antón-Juanilla, M., Rai, S., Chin, Y. F., Moore, M., Drake, T., Green, J. S. A., Goulao, B., MacLennan, G., Nielsen, M., McGrath, J. S., Kasivisvanathan, V.
Publisher Information: Elsevier
Publication Year: 2022
Collection: RD&E Research Repository (Royal Devon and Exeter NHS Foundation Trust)
Subject Terms: Bladder cancer, Haematuria, Prostate cancer, Renal cancer, Risk Calculator, Risk factors, Urinary tract cancer, Urothelial cancer
Description: BACKGROUND: Patient factors associated with urinary tract cancer can be used to risk stratify patients referred with haematuria, prioritising those with a higher risk of cancer for prompt investigation. OBJECTIVE: To develop a prediction model for urinary tract cancer in patients referred with haematuria. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A prospective observational study was conducted in 10 282 patients from 110 hospitals across 26 countries, aged ≥16 yr and referred to secondary care with haematuria. Patients with a known or previous urological malignancy were excluded. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The primary outcomes were the presence or absence of urinary tract cancer (bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial cancer [UTUC], and renal cancer). Mixed-effect multivariable logistic regression was performed with site and country as random effects and clinically important patient-level candidate predictors, chosen a priori, as fixed effects. Predictors were selected primarily using clinical reasoning, in addition to backward stepwise selection. Calibration and discrimination were calculated, and bootstrap validation was performed to calculate optimism. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The unadjusted prevalence was 17.2% (n = 1763) for bladder cancer, 1.20% (n = 123) for UTUC, and 1.00% (n = 103) for renal cancer. The final model included predictors of increased risk (visible haematuria, age, smoking history, male sex, and family history) and reduced risk (previous haematuria investigations, urinary tract infection, dysuria/suprapubic pain, anticoagulation, catheter use, and previous pelvic radiotherapy). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the final model was 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.87). The model is limited to patients without previous urological malignancy. CONCLUSIONS: This cancer prediction model is the first to consider established and novel urinary tract cancer diagnostic markers. It can be used in secondary care for risk stratifying patients and aid the ...
Document Type: article in journal/newspaper
Language: English
Relation: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405-4569(22)00129-8; European urology focus; https://hdl.handle.net/11287/622653
DOI: 10.1016/j.euf.2022.06.001
Availability: https://hdl.handle.net/11287/622653
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euf.2022.06.001
Rights: Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. ; http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Accession Number: edsbas.9BABFC24
Database: BASE
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  Data: Developing a Diagnostic Multivariable Prediction Model for Urinary Tract Cancer in Patients Referred with Haematuria: Results from the IDENTIFY Collaborative Study
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  Data: BACKGROUND: Patient factors associated with urinary tract cancer can be used to risk stratify patients referred with haematuria, prioritising those with a higher risk of cancer for prompt investigation. OBJECTIVE: To develop a prediction model for urinary tract cancer in patients referred with haematuria. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A prospective observational study was conducted in 10 282 patients from 110 hospitals across 26 countries, aged ≥16 yr and referred to secondary care with haematuria. Patients with a known or previous urological malignancy were excluded. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The primary outcomes were the presence or absence of urinary tract cancer (bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial cancer [UTUC], and renal cancer). Mixed-effect multivariable logistic regression was performed with site and country as random effects and clinically important patient-level candidate predictors, chosen a priori, as fixed effects. Predictors were selected primarily using clinical reasoning, in addition to backward stepwise selection. Calibration and discrimination were calculated, and bootstrap validation was performed to calculate optimism. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The unadjusted prevalence was 17.2% (n = 1763) for bladder cancer, 1.20% (n = 123) for UTUC, and 1.00% (n = 103) for renal cancer. The final model included predictors of increased risk (visible haematuria, age, smoking history, male sex, and family history) and reduced risk (previous haematuria investigations, urinary tract infection, dysuria/suprapubic pain, anticoagulation, catheter use, and previous pelvic radiotherapy). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the final model was 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.87). The model is limited to patients without previous urological malignancy. CONCLUSIONS: This cancer prediction model is the first to consider established and novel urinary tract cancer diagnostic markers. It can be used in secondary care for risk stratifying patients and aid the ...
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  Data: Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. ; http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
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