Academic Journal
Treatment Effects in Market Equilibrium
| Title: | Treatment Effects in Market Equilibrium |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Munro, Evan, Kuang, Xu, Wager, Stefan |
| Source: | American Economic Review. 115:3273-3321 |
| Publication Status: | Preprint |
| Publisher Information: | American Economic Association, 2025. |
| Publication Year: | 2025 |
| Subject Terms: | Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Economics and business, FOS: Computer and information sciences, Econometrics (econ.EM), 0101 mathematics, 01 natural sciences, Statistics - Methodology, Economics - Econometrics |
| Description: | Policy-relevant treatment effect estimation in a marketplace setting requires assessing both the direct treatment benefit and spillovers induced by changes to the market equilibrium. We show how to identify and estimate policy-relevant treatment effects using a unit-randomized trial run within a single large market. A Bernoulli-randomized trial allows consistent estimation of direct effects and of treatment-heterogeneity measures that enable welfare-improving targeting. Estimating spillovers—and providing confidence intervals for the direct effect—requires estimates of price elasticities, which we provide using an augmented experimental design. We illustrate our results using a simulation calibrated to a conditional cash-transfer experiment in the Philippines. (JEL C21, C51, I32, I38, O15) |
| Document Type: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| ISSN: | 1944-7981 0002-8282 |
| DOI: | 10.1257/aer.20230039 |
| DOI: | 10.48550/arxiv.2109.11647 |
| Access URL: | http://arxiv.org/abs/2109.11647 |
| Rights: | arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution |
| Accession Number: | edsair.doi.dedup.....5231ddbb98a7f49f393091550922f29d |
| Database: | OpenAIRE |
| ISSN: | 19447981 00028282 |
|---|---|
| DOI: | 10.1257/aer.20230039 |