Academic Journal
Spatial transferability of an agent-based model to simulate Taenia solium control interventions
| Title: | Spatial transferability of an agent-based model to simulate Taenia solium control interventions |
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| Authors: | Francesco Pizzitutti, Gabrielle Bonnet, Eloy Gonzales-Gustavson, Sarah Gabriël, William K. Pan, Armando E. Gonzalez, Hector H. Garcia, Seth E. O’Neal, for the Cysticercosis Working Group in Peru |
| Source: | Parasit Vectors Parasites & Vectors, Vol 16, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2023) PARASITES & VECTORS |
| Publisher Information: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2023. |
| Publication Year: | 2023 |
| Subject Terms: | Calibración, Sociology and Political Science, Intelligent agents (Computer software) -- Applications to public health, Swine, Veterinary medicine, Social Sciences, PORCINE CYSTICERCOSIS, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216, Cisticercosis, Infectious diseases modeling, Human taeniasis, Psychological intervention, Taenia solium, 11. Sustainability, Medicine and Health Sciences, Pathology, PIGS, Control intervention simulations, RISK, Swine Diseases, Psychiatry, Cestode infections, Geography, Statistics, 1. No poverty, 3. Good health, Infectious Diseases, Credible interval, Logit, Medicine, Taenia solium -- Transmission, TRANSMISSION, Model calibration, Immunology, Taenia solium-- Treatment, Biological, Epidemiological, and Clinical Aspects of Echinococcosis, Pathology and Forensic Medicine, Impact of Climate Change on Human Migration, Pig cysticercosis, Helminths, Health Sciences, Etiology and Management of Abdominal Wall Defects, FOS: Mathematics, Humans, Animals, 14. Life underwater, Adaptation, Biology, Taeniasis, Teniasis, General Veterinary, Cysticercosis, Research, FOS: Clinical medicine, Confidence interval, Model transferability, 15. Life on land, Análisis de Sistemas, Cross-Sectional Studies, Transferability, Agent-based modeling, 13. Climate action, Parasitology, Surgery, Mathematics |
| Description: | Background Models can be used to study and predict the impact of interventions aimed at controlling the spread of infectious agents, such as Taenia solium, a zoonotic parasite whose larval stage causes epilepsy and economic loss in many rural areas of the developing nations. To enhance the credibility of model estimates, calibration against observed data is necessary. However, this process may lead to a paradoxical dependence of model parameters on location-specific data, thus limiting the model’s geographic transferability. Methods In this study, we adopted a non-local model calibration approach to assess whether it can improve the spatial transferability of CystiAgent, our agent-based model of local-scale T. solium transmission. The calibration dataset for CystiAgent consisted of cross-sectional data on human taeniasis, pig cysticercosis and pig serology collected in eight villages in Northwest Peru. After calibration, the model was transferred to a second group of 21 destination villages in the same area without recalibrating its parameters. Model outputs were compared to pig serology data collected over a period of 2 years in the destination villages during a trial of T. solium control interventions, based on mass and spatially targeted human and pig treatments. Results Considering the uncertainties associated with empirical data, the model produced simulated pre-intervention pig seroprevalences that were successfully validated against data collected in 81% of destination villages. Furthermore, the model outputs were able to reproduce validated pig seroincidence values in 76% of destination villages when compared to the data obtained after the interventions. The results demonstrate that the CystiAgent model, when calibrated using a non-local approach, can be successfully transferred without requiring additional calibration. Conclusions This feature allows the model to simulate both baseline pre-intervention transmission conditions and the outcomes of control interventions across villages that form geographically homogeneous regions, providing a basis for developing large-scale models representing T. solium transmission at a regional level. Graphical Abstract |
| Document Type: | Article Other literature type |
| File Description: | application/pdf |
| Language: | English |
| ISSN: | 1756-3305 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s13071-023-06003-9 |
| DOI: | 10.60692/nfg7m-9qs10 |
| DOI: | 10.60692/ft0ch-ftr28 |
| Access URL: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37941062 https://doaj.org/article/ea0486bb1ec44359a59f3a8f665653db https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/14672 https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-023-06003-9 https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/01HGAQ014EXGGPZGFKDYB1WGGB/file/01HMH3RQ1C2MC9F3J1RFS0RAX9 http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-01HGAQ014EXGGPZGFKDYB1WGGB https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/01HGAQ014EXGGPZGFKDYB1WGGB http://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-023-06003-9 |
| Rights: | CC BY URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
| Accession Number: | edsair.doi.dedup.....1aa716fab7c67663d1cd07b4d6e9da53 |
| Database: | OpenAIRE |
| ISSN: | 17563305 |
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| DOI: | 10.1186/s13071-023-06003-9 |