Academic Journal
DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTIFACTORIAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR ASSESSING A COUNTRY’S CYBERVULNERABILITY IN A CONTEXT OF GEOPOLITICAL TURBULENCE.
| Τίτλος: | DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTIFACTORIAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR ASSESSING A COUNTRY’S CYBERVULNERABILITY IN A CONTEXT OF GEOPOLITICAL TURBULENCE. |
|---|---|
| Alternate Title: | РОЗРОБКА БАГАТОФАКТОРНОЇ ЕКОНОМЕТРИЧНОЇ МОДЕЛІ ОЦІНКИ КІБЕРВРАЗЛИВОСТІ ДЕРЖАВИ В УМОВАХ ГЕОПОЛІТИЧНОЇ ТУРБУЛЕНТНОСТІ. (Ukrainian) |
| Συγγραφείς: | Kushnerov, Oleksandr, Tiutiunyk, Inna, Yevseiev, Serhii, Opirskyy, Ivan, Sokol, Vladyslav, Voloshchuk, Olena, Novoseletskyi, Oleksandr, Melenti, Yevhen, Husarova, Iryna, Balagura, Dmytro |
| Πηγή: | Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies; 2026, Vol. 3 Issue 4(141), p32-43, 12p |
| Θεματικοί όροι: | Econometric models, War, Information technology security, Digital technology, Political stability, Business cycles, Internet security |
| Περίληψη: | The subject of the study was the national cyber vulnerability of sovereign states in a context of geopolitical turbulence. The study addresses the lack of proven, multi-factor econometric tools that would enable an accurate quantitative assessment of the impact of macroeconomic instability and military conflicts on the overall level of institutional cybersecurity. The results of the study showed that armed conflicts create a strong nonlinear link with breaches of digital systems’ information security, leading to a 10.2 percentage point increase in critical system vulnerabilities during periods of war. This was explained by the combined effect of the ‘war multiplier’ and the ‘paradox of institutional inertia’, as demonstrated by official Computer Security Incident Response Teams (CSIRTs) which were unable to protect systems due to a lack of adequate funding. The study showed that gross domestic product (GDP) acts as a protective factor, as every 1% increase in GDP leads to a 10.1% reduction in risk. The study’s results were unique, as a pooled logit regression model with cluster-consistent standard errors was used to analyze panel data from 14 countries (n = 68), and the threshold values for cyberattacks were determined at the 75th percentile. The developed model was used to quantify the effect of detection bias during crisis situations. The mathematical framework of the developed model acted as a central element, enabling macroeconomic early warning systems to fully realize their potential in the allocation of defense resources and the protection of digital sovereignty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies is the property of PC TECHNOLOGY CENTER and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | Complementary Index |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 CustomLinks: – Url: https://resolver.ebsco.com/c/fiv2js/result?sid=EBSCO:edb&genre=article&issn=17293774&ISBN=&volume=3&issue=4%28141%29&date=20260306&spage=32&pages=32-43&title=Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies&atitle=DEVELOPMENT%20OF%20A%20MULTIFACTORIAL%20ECONOMETRIC%20MODEL%20FOR%20ASSESSING%20A%20COUNTRY%E2%80%99S%20CYBERVULNERABILITY%20IN%20A%20CONTEXT%20OF%20GEOPOLITICAL%20TURBULENCE.&aulast=Kushnerov%2C%20Oleksandr&id=DOI:10.15587/1729-4061.2026.363063 Name: Full Text Finder (for New FTF UI) (ns324271) Category: fullText Text: Full Text Finder MouseOverText: Full Text Finder |
|---|---|
| Header | DbId: edb DbLabel: Complementary Index An: 195105692 RelevancyScore: 1061 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 1060.75695800781 |
| IllustrationInfo | |
| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTIFACTORIAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR ASSESSING A COUNTRY’S CYBERVULNERABILITY IN A CONTEXT OF GEOPOLITICAL TURBULENCE. – Name: TitleAlt Label: Alternate Title Group: TiAlt Data: РОЗРОБКА БАГАТОФАКТОРНОЇ ЕКОНОМЕТРИЧНОЇ МОДЕЛІ ОЦІНКИ КІБЕРВРАЗЛИВОСТІ ДЕРЖАВИ В УМОВАХ ГЕОПОЛІТИЧНОЇ ТУРБУЛЕНТНОСТІ. (Ukrainian) – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kushnerov%2C+Oleksandr%22">Kushnerov, Oleksandr</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tiutiunyk%2C+Inna%22">Tiutiunyk, Inna</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Yevseiev%2C+Serhii%22">Yevseiev, Serhii</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Opirskyy%2C+Ivan%22">Opirskyy, Ivan</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sokol%2C+Vladyslav%22">Sokol, Vladyslav</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Voloshchuk%2C+Olena%22">Voloshchuk, Olena</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Novoseletskyi%2C+Oleksandr%22">Novoseletskyi, Oleksandr</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Melenti%2C+Yevhen%22">Melenti, Yevhen</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Husarova%2C+Iryna%22">Husarova, Iryna</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Balagura%2C+Dmytro%22">Balagura, Dmytro</searchLink> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies; 2026, Vol. 3 Issue 4(141), p32-43, 12p – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Econometric+models%22">Econometric models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22War%22">War</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Information+technology+security%22">Information technology security</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Digital+technology%22">Digital technology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Political+stability%22">Political stability</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Business+cycles%22">Business cycles</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Internet+security%22">Internet security</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: The subject of the study was the national cyber vulnerability of sovereign states in a context of geopolitical turbulence. The study addresses the lack of proven, multi-factor econometric tools that would enable an accurate quantitative assessment of the impact of macroeconomic instability and military conflicts on the overall level of institutional cybersecurity. The results of the study showed that armed conflicts create a strong nonlinear link with breaches of digital systems’ information security, leading to a 10.2 percentage point increase in critical system vulnerabilities during periods of war. This was explained by the combined effect of the ‘war multiplier’ and the ‘paradox of institutional inertia’, as demonstrated by official Computer Security Incident Response Teams (CSIRTs) which were unable to protect systems due to a lack of adequate funding. The study showed that gross domestic product (GDP) acts as a protective factor, as every 1% increase in GDP leads to a 10.1% reduction in risk. The study’s results were unique, as a pooled logit regression model with cluster-consistent standard errors was used to analyze panel data from 14 countries (n = 68), and the threshold values for cyberattacks were determined at the 75th percentile. The developed model was used to quantify the effect of detection bias during crisis situations. The mathematical framework of the developed model acted as a central element, enabling macroeconomic early warning systems to fully realize their potential in the allocation of defense resources and the protection of digital sovereignty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: Abstract Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies is the property of PC TECHNOLOGY CENTER and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edb&AN=195105692 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.15587/1729-4061.2026.363063 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 12 StartPage: 32 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Econometric models Type: general – SubjectFull: War Type: general – SubjectFull: Information technology security Type: general – SubjectFull: Digital technology Type: general – SubjectFull: Political stability Type: general – SubjectFull: Business cycles Type: general – SubjectFull: Internet security Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTIFACTORIAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR ASSESSING A COUNTRY’S CYBERVULNERABILITY IN A CONTEXT OF GEOPOLITICAL TURBULENCE. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Kushnerov, Oleksandr – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Tiutiunyk, Inna – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Yevseiev, Serhii – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Opirskyy, Ivan – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Sokol, Vladyslav – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Voloshchuk, Olena – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Novoseletskyi, Oleksandr – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Melenti, Yevhen – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Husarova, Iryna – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Balagura, Dmytro IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 06 M: 03 Text: 2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 17293774 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 3 – Type: issue Value: 4(141) Titles: – TitleFull: Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |