Academic Journal
The Arctic Coastal Erosion Model: Overview, Developments, and Calibration at Drew Point, Alaska.
| Τίτλος: | The Arctic Coastal Erosion Model: Overview, Developments, and Calibration at Drew Point, Alaska. |
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| Συγγραφείς: | Bayat, Elyce, Bull, Diana L., Frederick, Jennifer M., Mota, Alejandro, Jones, Benjamin M., Tezaur, Irina, Flanary, Christopher, Bristol, Emily M., Jones, Melissa Ward, Choens, Robert C., Jones, Craig A. |
| Πηγή: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems; Mar2026, Vol. 18 Issue 3, p1-49, 49p |
| Θεματικοί όροι: | Erosion, Calibration, Permafrost, Finite element method, Climate change, Beach erosion |
| Γεωγραφικοί όροι: | Arctic regions, Alaska |
| Περίληψη: | Permafrost coastlines are experiencing significant erosion as polar amplification has enhanced the effects of climate change in the Arctic. Warmer temperatures are increasing thermo‐denudation and more energetic oceans are increasing thermo‐abrasion in unlithified, ice‐bonded permafrost coastlines which comprise at least 40% of the circum‐Arctic coastline. Here we present developments to and calibration of the Arctic Coastal Erosion (ACE) model, which couples oceanographic and atmospheric conditions at storm‐resolving time steps with a finite element multi‐physics terrestrial permafrost model. This ice‐bonded unlithified permafrost model unites 3D thermal and mechanical governing equations by allowing heat conduction with solid‐liquid phase change to drive ice saturation, which governs evolution of mechanical stress‐strain fields. Developments to the ACE terrestrial model, including introduction of novel erosion criteria to remove failed elements, reformulation of the mechanical material model, and wave pressure boundary conditions, enable simulation of both slowly advancing thermo‐denudation with permafrost sloughing from the face and highly episodic thermo‐abrasion with niche formation and rapidly advancing block failure. A 2018 summer field campaign at Drew Point, Alaska with observations of thermo‐denudation and thermo‐abrasion, including niche geometry before block failure, enable calibration of the terrestrial model. Detailed compositional and geomechanical characterization of the ice‐bonded sediments enabled advances in the material model representation and calibrated model parameters. We demonstrate a daily root‐mean square error of 0.12 m for thermo‐denudation over the summer and achieve block failure within 2 hr of the observed. The calibrated ACE model is the first step towards simulation of other ice‐bonded unlithified circum‐Arctic coastlines for various applications. Plain Language Summary: Enhanced Arctic warming is causing ice‐bonded unlithified permafrost coastlines, comprising 40% of the Arctic coastline, to recede at increasing rates. Ice bonds the unlithified material together requiring thermo‐mechanical processes to achieve erosion. We present developments to and calibration of the Arctic Coastal Erosion (ACE) model, which accounts for atmospheric, oceanographic, and permafrost dynamics to predict these erosional processes. Developments to the model include improvements to how permafrost material is eroded and how its mechanical behavior changes with ice saturation and porosity. Model calibration from a summer‐long 2018 field campaign at Drew Point, Alaska demonstrates accurate daily simulation of two distinct erosional processes. The first is the thawing and slow‐sloughing of permafrost off of the face of the coastline. The second is ocean‐produced undercutting of the bluff accurate to observed with rapidly‐advancing induced failure forces near the back of the simulated coastline within 2 hr of the observed. The newly calibrated ACE model lays the foundation for further simulation of other ice‐bonded unlithified sites around the Arctic coastline which may inform scientific understanding of permafrost erosion and various applications. Key Points: The Arctic Coastal Erosion model simulates thermo‐mechanical permafrost erosion in a finite‐element form responsive to dynamic atmospheric and oceanic drivers2018 field observations of slow slough and rapid block failure enable unequaled calibration of erosion progression, degree, and mechanismsCalibrating this novel multi‐physics approach is a foundation for future predictions sensitive to terrestrial and environmental variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Βάση Δεδομένων: | Complementary Index |
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