Academic Journal
The impact of delayed retirement on the financial sustainability of China's urban employee pension insurance fund.
| Τίτλος: | The impact of delayed retirement on the financial sustainability of China's urban employee pension insurance fund. |
|---|---|
| Συγγραφείς: | Wei F; School of Philosophy and Social Sciences, Jilin University, Changchun, China., Ji M; School of Philosophy and Social Sciences, Jilin University, Changchun, China. |
| Πηγή: | Frontiers in public health [Front Public Health] 2026 Aug 03; Vol. 14, pp. 1895268. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Aug 03 (Print Publication: 2026). |
| Τύπος έκδοσης: | Journal Article |
| Γλώσσα: | English |
| Στοιχεία περιοδικού: | Publisher: Frontiers Editorial Office Country of Publication: Switzerland NLM ID: 101616579 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2296-2565 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 22962565 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Front Public Health Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: Lausanne : Frontiers Editorial Office |
| Ιατρικοί όροι (MeSH): | Retirement*/economics , Retirement*/statistics & numerical data , Pensions*/statistics & numerical data , Urban Population*/statistics & numerical data, Humans ; China |
| Περίληψη: | Against the backdrop of accelerating population aging and mounting concerns over the financial viability of public pension systems, this paper develops an actuarial simulation framework that integrates demographic dynamics, fund revenue and expenditure rules, and the central adjustment mechanism. We evaluate four scenarios: baseline, delayed retirement only, national pooling only, and the combined reform. Our findings indicate that in the absence of policy intervention, regional disparities in fund balances intensify markedly: the western region enters cumulative deficit first, followed by the central region, while the eastern region retains a longer but still finite reserve buffer. The delayed-retirement-only path does not by itself improve fiscal performance in the present calibration, whereas national pooling narrows current deficits and postpones reserve depletion in deficit regions. When the two reforms are implemented jointly, the combined scenario delivers the strongest overall performance and produces a positive interaction effect on both current and cumulative balances across all three regions. Sensitivity tests further show that pessimistic macro conditions, weaker collection, and lower fund return materially erode the gains, while province-level results reveal substantial heterogeneity within each region. To strengthen the long-run sustainability and institutional resilience of the urban employee pension insurance system, we recommend refining the design of the national pooling mechanism, advancing delayed retirement together with complementary labor-market measures, and adopting regionally differentiated implementation and dynamic adjustment. (Copyright © 2026 Wei and Ji.) |
| Competing Interests: | The author(s) declared that this work was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. |
| References: | J Risk Insur. 2021 Dec;88(4):903-936. (PMID: 34908589) J Dev Econ. 2021 May;150:102635. (PMID: 35721766) |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: actuarial simulation; delayed retirement; financial sustainability; national pooling; urban employee pension insurance fund |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20260818 Date Completed: 20260818 Latest Revision: 20260819 |
| Update Code: | 20260819 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC13477983 |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fpubh.2026.1895268 |
| PMID: | 42609296 |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | MEDLINE |
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