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Parenthood decisions in uncertain times: Experimental evidence from four countries.

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Title: Parenthood decisions in uncertain times: Experimental evidence from four countries.
Authors: Aassve A; Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy., Mencarini L; Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy., Peng C; Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy., Plach S; Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy., Amarales AR; Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy., Tanturri ML; Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, Padova 35121, Italy.
Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A] 2026 Aug 04; Vol. 123 (31), pp. e2601690123. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Jul 28.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Language: English
Journal Info: Publisher: National Academy of Sciences Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 7505876 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1091-6490 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00278424 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Subsets: MEDLINE
Imprint Name(s): Original Publication: Washington, DC : National Academy of Sciences
MeSH Terms: Birth Rate*/trends , Parents*/psychology , Decision Making*, Humans ; United States ; Female ; Germany ; Uncertainty ; Italy ; Argentina ; Male ; Family Characteristics ; Climate Change ; Fertility ; Adult ; Socioeconomic Factors
Abstract: Fertility rates are declining across much of the globe, yet the forces driving this decline have become increasingly complex, and classic theories have become less adequate to explain recent trends. While economic and gender-related explanations have long dominated fertility research, emerging global uncertainties, such as climate change, democratic backsliding, economic crises, and regional conflicts, may also shape how individuals evaluate childbearing. In addition to the more classical factors, this cross-national study examines how macrolevel uncertainties influence perceptions of fertility intentions in Italy, Argentina, the United States, and Germany. These countries offer distinct fertility trajectories and face unique combinations of sociopolitical and environmental challenges. Using a conjoint experiment, we examine how individuals evaluate, across hypothetical scenarios, their intention of having a child under varying household, policy, and macrolevel conditions. Across all four countries, material security remains central: household income is the strongest predictor of fertility intentions, with homeownership and childcare playing smaller roles. At the same time, perceptions of macrolevel stability, including expectations about climate conditions, economic prospects, democratic functioning, and peace, exert substantial and meaningful effects, comparable to homeownership and childcare provision but more pronounced than those associated with gender-role arrangements. Cross-country differences show that macroeconomic stability and climate change are most consequential in Argentina, while in the United States respondents are less responsive to geopolitical conflict. These findings show that individuals evaluate childbearing not only through their immediate circumstances, but also through expectations about broader societal futures, highlighting the importance of incorporating macrolevel uncertainty when explaining contemporary fertility decline.
Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.
Grant Information: J53D23009530001 Ministry of Universities and Research (Italy)
Contributed Indexing: Keywords: climate change; conjoint experiment; economic security; fertility intentions; uncertainty
Entry Date(s): Date Created: 20260728 Date Completed: 20260729 Latest Revision: 20260729
Update Code: 20260730
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2601690123
PMID: 42520122
Database: MEDLINE
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  Data: Parenthood decisions in uncertain times: Experimental evidence from four countries.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Aassve+A%22">Aassve A</searchLink>; Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Mencarini+L%22">Mencarini L</searchLink>; Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Peng+C%22">Peng C</searchLink>; Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Plach+S%22">Plach S</searchLink>; Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Amarales+AR%22">Amarales AR</searchLink>; Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Tanturri+ML%22">Tanturri ML</searchLink>; Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, Padova 35121, Italy.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%227505876%22">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</searchLink> [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A] 2026 Aug 04; Vol. 123 (31), pp. e2601690123. <i>Date of Electronic Publication: </i>2026 Jul 28.
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  Data: <i>Original Publication</i>: Washington, DC : National Academy of Sciences
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  Data: Fertility rates are declining across much of the globe, yet the forces driving this decline have become increasingly complex, and classic theories have become less adequate to explain recent trends. While economic and gender-related explanations have long dominated fertility research, emerging global uncertainties, such as climate change, democratic backsliding, economic crises, and regional conflicts, may also shape how individuals evaluate childbearing. In addition to the more classical factors, this cross-national study examines how macrolevel uncertainties influence perceptions of fertility intentions in Italy, Argentina, the United States, and Germany. These countries offer distinct fertility trajectories and face unique combinations of sociopolitical and environmental challenges. Using a conjoint experiment, we examine how individuals evaluate, across hypothetical scenarios, their intention of having a child under varying household, policy, and macrolevel conditions. Across all four countries, material security remains central: household income is the strongest predictor of fertility intentions, with homeownership and childcare playing smaller roles. At the same time, perceptions of macrolevel stability, including expectations about climate conditions, economic prospects, democratic functioning, and peace, exert substantial and meaningful effects, comparable to homeownership and childcare provision but more pronounced than those associated with gender-role arrangements. Cross-country differences show that macroeconomic stability and climate change are most consequential in Argentina, while in the United States respondents are less responsive to geopolitical conflict. These findings show that individuals evaluate childbearing not only through their immediate circumstances, but also through expectations about broader societal futures, highlighting the importance of incorporating macrolevel uncertainty when explaining contemporary fertility decline.
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  Data: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.
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  Data: J53D23009530001 Ministry of Universities and Research (Italy)
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  Data: <i>Keywords: </i>climate change; conjoint experiment; economic security; fertility intentions; uncertainty
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        Value: 10.1073/pnas.2601690123
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        Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: United States
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      – SubjectFull: Female
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      – TitleFull: Parenthood decisions in uncertain times: Experimental evidence from four countries.
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              Text: 2026 Aug 04
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