Academic Journal
Prediction models for suicide reattempts by lasso regression through machine learning models: Single versus multiple suicide attempters.
| Τίτλος: | Prediction models for suicide reattempts by lasso regression through machine learning models: Single versus multiple suicide attempters. |
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| Συγγραφείς: | Roberto N; Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Institute of Neurosciences (UBNeuro), University of Barcelona (UB), Catalonia, Spain; Bipolar and Depressive Disorders Unit, Hospital Clinic de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain., De Prisco M; Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Institute of Neurosciences (UBNeuro), University of Barcelona (UB), Catalonia, Spain; Bipolar and Depressive Disorders Unit, Hospital Clinic de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., Andreo-Jover J; Hospital La Paz Institute for Health Research (IdiPAZ), Madrid, Spain; Department of Psychiatry, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (UAM), Madrid, Spain., Arqueros M; Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, CIBERSAM, Spain., Ayad Ahmed W; Hospital Clínico San Carlos, Spain., Bobes-Bascarán M T; Department of Psychology, Universidad de Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain; Instituto Universitario de Neurociencias del Principado de Asturias (INEUROPA), Oviedo, Spain; Servicio de Salud del Principado de Asturias (SESPA), Oviedo, Spain; Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria del Principado de Asturias (ISPA), Oviedo, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., Canal-Rivero M; Department of Medicine & Psychiatry, University Hospital Virgen del Rocio, IBiS, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., Cebrià AI; Department of Mental Health, Corporació Sanitaria Parc Taulí de Sabadell, Barcelona, Spain; Institut d'Investigació I Innovació Parc Taulí (I3PT), Institut de Neurociències, Unitat de Neurociència Traslacional - Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., Crespo-Facorro B; Department of Medicine & Psychiatry, University Hospital Virgen del Rocio, IBiS, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., de la Torre A; Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., Diaz-Marsá M; Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain; Hospital Clínico San Carlos, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., Elices M; Hospital del Mar Research Institute, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., García Martínez D; Department of Psychiatry, Clinical Psychology and Mental Health, La Paz University Hospital, Madrid, Spain; Hospital La Paz Institute for Health Research (IdiPAZ), Madrid, Spain., Grande I; Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Institute of Neurosciences (UBNeuro), University of Barcelona (UB), Catalonia, Spain; Bipolar and Depressive Disorders Unit, Hospital Clinic de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain. Electronic address: igrande@clinic.cat., Jiménez-Treviño L; Department of Psychology, Universidad de Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain; Instituto Universitario de Neurociencias del Principado de Asturias (INEUROPA), Oviedo, Spain; Servicio de Salud del Principado de Asturias (SESPA), Oviedo, Spain; Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria del Principado de Asturias (ISPA), Oviedo, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., Mann JJ; Division of Molecular Imaging and Neuropathology Area, New York State Psychiatric Institute, New York, United States of America; Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, United States of America; Department of Radiology, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York, United States of America., McIntyre SR; Department of Psychiatry and Pharmacology, University of Toronto, Canada., Oliva V; Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Institute of Neurosciences (UBNeuro), University of Barcelona (UB), Catalonia, Spain; Bipolar and Depressive Disorders Unit, Hospital Clinic de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain., Palao Á; Department of Psychiatry, Clinical Psychology and Mental Health, La Paz University Hospital, Madrid, Spain; Hospital La Paz Institute for Health Research (IdiPAZ), Madrid, Spain; Department of Psychiatry, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (UAM), Madrid, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., Palao DJ; Department of Mental Health, Corporació Sanitaria Parc Taulí de Sabadell, Barcelona, Spain; Institut d'Investigació I Innovació Parc Taulí (I3PT), Institut de Neurociències, Unitat de Neurociència Traslacional - Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., Pérez-Diez I; Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain., Ruiz-Vegüilla M; Department of Medicine & Psychiatry, University Hospital Virgen del Rocio, IBiS, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., Sáiz PA; Department of Psychology, Universidad de Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain; Instituto Universitario de Neurociencias del Principado de Asturias (INEUROPA), Oviedo, Spain; Servicio de Salud del Principado de Asturias (SESPA), Oviedo, Spain; Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria del Principado de Asturias (ISPA), Oviedo, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., Zorrilla I; BIORABA, Department of Psychiatry, Hospital Universitario de Alava; University of the Basque Country, UPV/EHU, Leioa, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain., Pérez-Solà V; Hospital del Mar Research Institute, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Psychiatry, Hospital del Mar, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, UPF, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain. |
| Συλλογικό Έργο: | SURVIVE CONSORTIUM |
| Πηγή: | Journal of affective disorders [J Affect Disord] 2026 Jun 15; Vol. 403, pp. 121306. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Feb 17. |
| Τύπος έκδοσης: | Journal Article; Multicenter Study |
| Γλώσσα: | English |
| Στοιχεία περιοδικού: | Publisher: Elsevier/North-Holland Biomedical Press Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 7906073 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1573-2517 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 01650327 NLM ISO Abbreviation: J Affect Disord Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: Amsterdam, Elsevier/North-Holland Biomedical Press. |
| Ιατρικοί όροι (MeSH): | Suicide, Attempted*/psychology , Suicide, Attempted*/statistics & numerical data , Classification Algorithms* , Predictive Learning Models*, Bipolar Disorder/psychology ; Schizophrenia/epidemiology ; Adult ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Cohort Studies ; Logistic Models ; Recurrence ; Risk Factors ; Spain |
| Περίληψη: | The best predictor of a suicide attempt is a previous attempt, apart from psychiatric diagnoses also associated. Some studies found other indicators of great risk for suicide reattempts. Machine Learning algorithms offer the potential for systematic detection of features that carry greater risk for an event. This study sought to develop a classification algorithm distinguishing between Single Suicide Attempters (SSA) and Multiple Suicide Attempters (MSA) in a Spanish multicentre national cohort to explore prediction of subsequent attempts in suicidal patients. Two models including the same sociodemographic and clinical variables grouped in more specific (Model I) or broad (Model II) categories were developed to explore risk factors for suicide reattempts. A Least Absolute Shrinkage and Regression Operator logistic regression with a 10-fold cross-validation was adopted. 1443 adult patients from the SURVIVE cohort were included (582 SSA and 861 MSA). Both Model I (AUC = 0.696; BAC = 0.644) and Model II (AUC = 0.678; BAC = 0.621) outperformed naïve majority-class classification for SSA and MSA. Bipolar disorder type II, binge-eating disorder, and schizophrenia variables weighted heavier on Model I for suicide reattempt-related; while eating disorder diagnosis, Africa as birthplace, affective disorder diagnosis, being employed, schizophrenia-spectrum disorder and substance use disorder diagnoses were the most important suicide reattempt-related of Model II. Affective disorders, eating disorders and schizophrenia-spectrum disorders emerged as the most important variables in predicting reattempts. Both models showed similar sensitivity and specificity when discriminating between SSA and MSA. Identifying specific risk factors for reattempts could have a significant impact on tailoring prevention strategies and interventions. (Copyright © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.) |
| Competing Interests: | Declaration of competing interest IG has received grants and has served as a consultant, advisor or CME speaker for the following entities: ADAMED, Angelini, Casen Recordati, Esteve, Ferrer, Gedeon Richter, Janssen Cilag, Lundbeck, Lundbeck-Otsuka, Luye, SEI Healthcare, Viatris outside the submitted work. She also receives royalties from Oxford University Press, Elsevier, Editorial Médica Panamericana. PAS has been a consultant to and/or has received honoraria or grants from Adamed, Alter Medica, Angelini Pharma, CIBERSAM, Ethypharm Digital Therapy, European Commission, Government of the Principality of Asturias, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Johnson & Johnson, Lundbeck, Otsuka, Pfizer, Plan Nacional Sobre Drogas, Rovi, Servier, and Viatris España outside the submitted work. The rest of authors have nothing to disclose. |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Bipolar disorder type II, schizophrenia, binge eating disorder; Machine learning; Prediction; Suicide attempters |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20260217 Date Completed: 20260708 Latest Revision: 20260730 |
| Update Code: | 20260731 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jad.2026.121306 |
| PMID: | 41702460 |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | MEDLINE |
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