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The hard steps model and whole Earth-system transitions.

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Τίτλος: The hard steps model and whole Earth-system transitions.
Συγγραφείς: Watson A; Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Πηγή: Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences [Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci] 2025 Aug 07; Vol. 380 (1931), pp. 20240105. Date of Electronic Publication: 2025 Aug 07.
Τύπος έκδοσης: Journal Article
Γλώσσα: English
Στοιχεία περιοδικού: Publisher: Royal Society Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 7503623 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1471-2970 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 09628436 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci Subsets: MEDLINE
Imprint Name(s): Original Publication: London : Royal Society, 1934-
Ιατρικοί όροι (MeSH): Earth, Planet* , Evolution, Planetary* , Biological Evolution* , Origin of Life* , Models, Theoretical*, Exobiology ; Extraterrestrial Environment ; Planets
Περίληψη: The hard steps model is a 'toy' mathematical representation of evolution towards complex life on Earth or Earth-like planets. It assumes that, at the longest time scale, the rate of evolution towards increased complexity is governed by unlikely transitions that happen randomly and rarely. Applied to Earth, the model suggests a small number of such transitions in the pathway to 'intelligent observers'-humans. The transitions are usually envisaged as occurring instantaneously, but this ignores the reality that on Earth, the evolution of life and the planetary environment have been inextricably linked. The critical steps should be seen as initiating whole Earth-system transitions that take hundreds of millions of years to complete, as in the events that caused, and followed after, the Paleoproterozoic and Neoproterozoic glacial episodes. These were both caused by, and drivers of, evolutionary advances that were necessary for complex life to arise. I adapt the model to include such delays and show that it then suggests just two or three hard steps to humans. The model predicts that the search for biosignatures in exoplanet atmospheres may find planets with Archean-like atmospheres, but probably will not find the signature of a planet with a Proterozoic or modern Earth-like atmosphere.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Chance and purpose in the evolution of biospheres'.
References: Nature. 1992 Dec 24-31;360(6406):721-3. (PMID: 11536510)
Proc Biol Sci. 2006 Aug 7;273(1596):1867-72. (PMID: 16822745)
Proc Biol Sci. 2022 Mar 30;289(1971):20212711. (PMID: 35350860)
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Sep 13;108(37):15091-6. (PMID: 21825156)
Astrobiology. 2017 Oct;17(10):1022-1052. (PMID: 28443722)
Int J Biochem Cell Biol. 2009 Feb;41(2):307-22. (PMID: 18935970)
Sci Adv. 2020 Feb 26;6(9):eaax1420. (PMID: 32133393)
Front Bioinform. 2023 Sep 01;3:1233281. (PMID: 37727796)
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Feb 21;114(8):1811-1816. (PMID: 28167763)
Nature. 1995 Mar 16;374(6519):227-32. (PMID: 7885442)
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2025 Aug 7;380(1931):20240105. (PMID: 40770984)
Astrobiology. 2008 Feb;8(1):175-85. (PMID: 18237258)
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Aug 16;108(33):13624-9. (PMID: 21810989)
Curr Biol. 2023 Sep 11;33(17):R919-R929. (PMID: 37699353)
Sci Adv. 2025 Feb 14;11(7):eads5698. (PMID: 39951518)
Science. 2001 Aug 3;293(5531):839-43. (PMID: 11486082)
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Aug 18;112(33):10104-11. (PMID: 25838283)
Nature. 2013 Sep 26;501(7468):535-8. (PMID: 24067713)
Astrobiology. 2003 Summer;3(2):237-9; author reply 241-3. (PMID: 14577871)
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2017 Feb 5;372(1713):. (PMID: 27994119)
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jun 16;117(24):13314-13320. (PMID: 32482849)
Sci Rep. 2015 Sep 10;5:13977. (PMID: 26354078)
Astrobiology. 2002 Fall;2(3):293-304. (PMID: 12530239)
Nature. 2006 Oct 12;443(7112):683-6. (PMID: 17036001)
Nature. 1993 Oct 21;365(6448):715-21. (PMID: 11536539)
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2006 Jun 29;361(1470):931-50. (PMID: 16754608)
Science. 2010 Mar 5;327(5970):1241-3. (PMID: 20203045)
Grant Information: Royal Society
Contributed Indexing: Keywords: astrobiology; biosignatures; evolution; exoplanets
Entry Date(s): Date Created: 20250807 Date Completed: 20250807 Latest Revision: 20250809
Update Code: 20260130
PubMed Central ID: PMC12329452
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2024.0105
PMID: 40770984
Βάση Δεδομένων: MEDLINE
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  Data: The hard steps model and whole Earth-system transitions.
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  Data: The hard steps model is a 'toy' mathematical representation of evolution towards complex life on Earth or Earth-like planets. It assumes that, at the longest time scale, the rate of evolution towards increased complexity is governed by unlikely transitions that happen randomly and rarely. Applied to Earth, the model suggests a small number of such transitions in the pathway to 'intelligent observers'-humans. The transitions are usually envisaged as occurring instantaneously, but this ignores the reality that on Earth, the evolution of life and the planetary environment have been inextricably linked. The critical steps should be seen as initiating whole Earth-system transitions that take hundreds of millions of years to complete, as in the events that caused, and followed after, the Paleoproterozoic and Neoproterozoic glacial episodes. These were both caused by, and drivers of, evolutionary advances that were necessary for complex life to arise. I adapt the model to include such delays and show that it then suggests just two or three hard steps to humans. The model predicts that the search for biosignatures in exoplanet atmospheres may find planets with Archean-like atmospheres, but probably will not find the signature of a planet with a Proterozoic or modern Earth-like atmosphere.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Chance and purpose in the evolution of biospheres'.
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  Data: Nature. 1992 Dec 24-31;360(6406):721-3. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2211536510%22">11536510)</searchLink><br />Proc Biol Sci. 2006 Aug 7;273(1596):1867-72. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2216822745%22">16822745)</searchLink><br />Proc Biol Sci. 2022 Mar 30;289(1971):20212711. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2235350860%22">35350860)</searchLink><br />Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Sep 13;108(37):15091-6. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2221825156%22">21825156)</searchLink><br />Astrobiology. 2017 Oct;17(10):1022-1052. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2228443722%22">28443722)</searchLink><br />Int J Biochem Cell Biol. 2009 Feb;41(2):307-22. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2218935970%22">18935970)</searchLink><br />Sci Adv. 2020 Feb 26;6(9):eaax1420. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2232133393%22">32133393)</searchLink><br />Front Bioinform. 2023 Sep 01;3:1233281. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2237727796%22">37727796)</searchLink><br />Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Feb 21;114(8):1811-1816. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2228167763%22">28167763)</searchLink><br />Nature. 1995 Mar 16;374(6519):227-32. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%227885442%22">7885442)</searchLink><br />Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2025 Aug 7;380(1931):20240105. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2240770984%22">40770984)</searchLink><br />Astrobiology. 2008 Feb;8(1):175-85. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2218237258%22">18237258)</searchLink><br />Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Aug 16;108(33):13624-9. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2221810989%22">21810989)</searchLink><br />Curr Biol. 2023 Sep 11;33(17):R919-R929. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2237699353%22">37699353)</searchLink><br />Sci Adv. 2025 Feb 14;11(7):eads5698. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2239951518%22">39951518)</searchLink><br />Science. 2001 Aug 3;293(5531):839-43. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2211486082%22">11486082)</searchLink><br />Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Aug 18;112(33):10104-11. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2225838283%22">25838283)</searchLink><br />Nature. 2013 Sep 26;501(7468):535-8. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2224067713%22">24067713)</searchLink><br />Astrobiology. 2003 Summer;3(2):237-9; author reply 241-3. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2214577871%22">14577871)</searchLink><br />Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2017 Feb 5;372(1713):. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2227994119%22">27994119)</searchLink><br />Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jun 16;117(24):13314-13320. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2232482849%22">32482849)</searchLink><br />Sci Rep. 2015 Sep 10;5:13977. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2226354078%22">26354078)</searchLink><br />Astrobiology. 2002 Fall;2(3):293-304. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2212530239%22">12530239)</searchLink><br />Nature. 2006 Oct 12;443(7112):683-6. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2217036001%22">17036001)</searchLink><br />Nature. 1993 Oct 21;365(6448):715-21. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2211536539%22">11536539)</searchLink><br />Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2006 Jun 29;361(1470):931-50. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2216754608%22">16754608)</searchLink><br />Science. 2010 Mar 5;327(5970):1241-3. (PMID: <searchLink fieldCode="PM" term="%2220203045%22">20203045)</searchLink>
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