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Further perceptions of probability: Accurate, stepwise updating is contingent on prior information about the task and the response mode.

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Title: Further perceptions of probability: Accurate, stepwise updating is contingent on prior information about the task and the response mode.
Authors: Forsgren M; Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 1225, 751 42, Uppsala, Sweden. mattias.forsgren@psyk.uu.se., Juslin P; Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 1225, 751 42, Uppsala, Sweden., van den Berg R; Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 1225, 751 42, Uppsala, Sweden.; Department of Psychology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Source: Psychonomic bulletin & review [Psychon Bull Rev] 2025 Jun; Vol. 32 (3), pp. 1284-1296. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Nov 14.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Language: English
Journal Info: Publisher: Springer] Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 9502924 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1531-5320 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 10699384 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Psychon Bull Rev Subsets: MEDLINE
Imprint Name(s): Publication: <2013-> : [New York : Springer]
Original Publication: Austin, TX : Psychonomic Society, Inc., c1994-
MeSH Terms: Probability Learning*, Humans ; Probability ; Adult ; Young Adult
Abstract: To adapt to an uncertain world, humans must learn event probabilities. These probabilities may be stationary, such as that of rolling a 6 on a die, or changing over time, like the probability of rainfall over the year. Research on how people estimate and track changing probabilities has recently reopened an old epistemological issue. A small, mostly recent literature finds that people accurately track the probability and change their estimates only occasionally, resulting in staircase-shaped response patterns. This has been taken as evidence that people entertain beliefs about unknown, distal states of the world, which are tested against observations to produce discrete shifts between hypotheses. That idea stands in contrast to the claim that people learn by continuously updating associations between observed events. The purpose of this article is to investigate the generality and robustness of the accurate, staircase-shaped pattern. In two experiments, we find that the response pattern is contingent on the response mode and prior information about the generative process. Participants exist on continua of accuracy and staircase-ness and we only reproduce previous results when changing estimates is effortful and prior information is provided-the specific conditions of previous experiments. We conclude that explaining this solely through either hypotheses or associations is untenable. A complete theory of probability estimation requires the interaction of three components: (i) online tracking of observed data, (ii) beliefs about the unobserved "generative process," and (iii) a response updating process. Participants' overt estimates depend on how the specific task conditions jointly determine all three.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Competing Interests: Declarations. Conflict of interest: We have no conflicts of interest to disclose. Ethics approval: Participants gave informed consent and were aware that they could terminate participation at any time. All data are anonymous, and no sensitive personal data were collected. The study involved no physical intervention on participants or biological material being taken from the participants. The participants were neither physically nor psychologically manipulated, and there was no risk of harming the participants physically or psychologically. According to the Swedish act concerning the Ethical Review of Research involving humans (2003:460), application for ethics approval is required if any of the above considerations are not fulfilled. Since these considerations were fulfilled, blanket ethics approval applied to this study. The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki. Consent to participate: All participants in this research gave informed consent before starting the experiment. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Open practices statement: All data, materials, and analysis code are available at  https://osf.io/zhv2r/ . This study was not preregistered.
References: Neuron. 2014 Nov 19;84(4):870-81. (PMID: 25459409)
Atten Percept Psychophys. 2017 Jul;79(5):1480-1494. (PMID: 28378283)
Front Hum Neurosci. 2014 Nov 19;8:825. (PMID: 25477800)
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2025 Apr;51(4):515-525. (PMID: 39680008)
Nat Neurosci. 2007 Sep;10(9):1214-21. (PMID: 17676057)
Psychol Bull. 1967 Jul;68(1):29-46. (PMID: 6046307)
Nat Neurosci. 2008 Apr;11(4):389-97. (PMID: 18368045)
Psychol Rev. 2014 Jan;121(1):96-123. (PMID: 24490790)
Cortex. 2013 Jun;49(6):1627-35. (PMID: 22717205)
Trends Cogn Sci. 2020 Dec;24(12):1008-1018. (PMID: 33077380)
Psychol Rev. 2023 Oct;130(5):1383-1400. (PMID: 36633996)
PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Jul 8;15(7):e1006681. (PMID: 31283765)
Psychol Rev. 2025 Apr;132(3):556-580. (PMID: 40014529)
Brain. 2021 Apr 12;144(3):1013-1029. (PMID: 33434284)
J Neurosci. 2010 Sep 15;30(37):12366-78. (PMID: 20844132)
PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 Jul 1;16(7):e1007963. (PMID: 32609755)
Psychon Bull Rev. 2005 Feb;12(1):24-42. (PMID: 15948282)
Psychol Rev. 2023 Mar;130(2):546-568. (PMID: 35389718)
Contributed Indexing: Keywords: Associative learning; Hypothesis testing; Probability estimation; Probability learning
Entry Date(s): Date Created: 20241114 Date Completed: 20250520 Latest Revision: 20250523
Update Code: 20260130
PubMed Central ID: PMC12092534
DOI: 10.3758/s13423-024-02604-2
PMID: 39543057
Database: MEDLINE
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AU&quot; term=&quot;%22Forsgren+M%22&quot;&gt;Forsgren M&lt;/searchLink&gt;; Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 1225, 751 42, Uppsala, Sweden. mattias.forsgren@psyk.uu.se.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AU&quot; term=&quot;%22Juslin+P%22&quot;&gt;Juslin P&lt;/searchLink&gt;; Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 1225, 751 42, Uppsala, Sweden.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AU&quot; term=&quot;%22van+den+Berg+R%22&quot;&gt;van den Berg R&lt;/searchLink&gt;; Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 1225, 751 42, Uppsala, Sweden.; Department of Psychology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
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  Data: To adapt to an uncertain world, humans must learn event probabilities. These probabilities may be stationary, such as that of rolling a 6 on a die, or changing over time, like the probability of rainfall over the year. Research on how people estimate and track changing probabilities has recently reopened an old epistemological issue. A small, mostly recent literature finds that people accurately track the probability and change their estimates only occasionally, resulting in staircase-shaped response patterns. This has been taken as evidence that people entertain beliefs about unknown, distal states of the world, which are tested against observations to produce discrete shifts between hypotheses. That idea stands in contrast to the claim that people learn by continuously updating associations between observed events. The purpose of this article is to investigate the generality and robustness of the accurate, staircase-shaped pattern. In two experiments, we find that the response pattern is contingent on the response mode and prior information about the generative process. Participants exist on continua of accuracy and staircase-ness and we only reproduce previous results when changing estimates is effortful and prior information is provided-the specific conditions of previous experiments. We conclude that explaining this solely through either hypotheses or associations is untenable. A complete theory of probability estimation requires the interaction of three components: (i) online tracking of observed data, (ii) beliefs about the unobserved &quot;generative process,&quot; and (iii) a response updating process. Participants&#39; overt estimates depend on how the specific task conditions jointly determine all three.&lt;br /&gt; (&#169; 2024. The Author(s).)
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  Data: Declarations. Conflict of interest: We have no conflicts of interest to disclose. Ethics approval: Participants gave informed consent and were aware that they could terminate participation at any time. All data are anonymous, and no sensitive personal data were collected. The study involved no physical intervention on participants or biological material being taken from the participants. The participants were neither physically nor psychologically manipulated, and there was no risk of harming the participants physically or psychologically. According to the Swedish act concerning the Ethical Review of Research involving humans (2003:460), application for ethics approval is required if any of the above considerations are not fulfilled. Since these considerations were fulfilled, blanket ethics approval applied to this study. The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki. Consent to participate: All participants in this research gave informed consent before starting the experiment. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Open practices statement: All data, materials, and analysis code are available at&#160; https://osf.io/zhv2r/ . This study was not preregistered.
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  Data: Neuron. 2014 Nov 19;84(4):870-81. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2225459409%22&quot;&gt;25459409)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Atten Percept Psychophys. 2017 Jul;79(5):1480-1494. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2228378283%22&quot;&gt;28378283)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Front Hum Neurosci. 2014 Nov 19;8:825. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2225477800%22&quot;&gt;25477800)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2025 Apr;51(4):515-525. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2239680008%22&quot;&gt;39680008)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nat Neurosci. 2007 Sep;10(9):1214-21. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2217676057%22&quot;&gt;17676057)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Psychol Bull. 1967 Jul;68(1):29-46. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%226046307%22&quot;&gt;6046307)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nat Neurosci. 2008 Apr;11(4):389-97. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2218368045%22&quot;&gt;18368045)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Psychol Rev. 2014 Jan;121(1):96-123. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2224490790%22&quot;&gt;24490790)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cortex. 2013 Jun;49(6):1627-35. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2222717205%22&quot;&gt;22717205)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Trends Cogn Sci. 2020 Dec;24(12):1008-1018. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2233077380%22&quot;&gt;33077380)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Psychol Rev. 2023 Oct;130(5):1383-1400. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2236633996%22&quot;&gt;36633996)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Jul 8;15(7):e1006681. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2231283765%22&quot;&gt;31283765)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Psychol Rev. 2025 Apr;132(3):556-580. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2240014529%22&quot;&gt;40014529)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Brain. 2021 Apr 12;144(3):1013-1029. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2233434284%22&quot;&gt;33434284)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;J Neurosci. 2010 Sep 15;30(37):12366-78. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2220844132%22&quot;&gt;20844132)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 Jul 1;16(7):e1007963. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2232609755%22&quot;&gt;32609755)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Psychon Bull Rev. 2005 Feb;12(1):24-42. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2215948282%22&quot;&gt;15948282)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Psychol Rev. 2023 Mar;130(2):546-568. (PMID: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;PM&quot; term=&quot;%2235389718%22&quot;&gt;35389718)&lt;/searchLink&gt;
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