Academic Journal
Identify the ecological risks of Lhasa Region in 2035 under different scenarios from the change of ecosystem services and landscape.
| Τίτλος: | Identify the ecological risks of Lhasa Region in 2035 under different scenarios from the change of ecosystem services and landscape. |
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| Συγγραφείς: | Yu, Haotian1 (AUTHOR) 202321051121@mail.bnu.edu.cn, Qian, Xuexue1 (AUTHOR) 1468377144@qq.com, Zhao, Yihe1 (AUTHOR) 202421051160@mail.bnu.edu.cn, Wang, Chang1 (AUTHOR) 202421051142@mail.bnu.edu.cn, Liu, Yinghui1 (AUTHOR) lyh@bnu.edu.cn |
| Πηγή: | Environment, Development & Sustainability. Sep2026, p1-31. 31p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: | *Environmental protection, Ecological risk assessment, Ecosystem services, Landscape ecology, Landscape changes, Uplands |
| Γεωγραφικοί όροι: | Tibet (China), Lhasa (China) |
| Περίληψη: | Ecological risk assessment, an essential approach for characterizing adverse ecological outcomes induced by risk sources, is of particular importance in the Lhasa region—an environmentally sensitive region on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau that has been subjected to marked environmental change and mounting anthropogenic stresses. To characterize and forecast the ecological risk distribution in the Lhasa region and identify zones requiring priority intervention, ecosystem services and landscape ecological index in 2035 were analysed under three scenarios using land use/land cover (LULC) and other datasets. Simulation of 2035 land-use conditions was conducted using the PLUS model across three policy scenarios: natural development (ND), ecological protection (EP), and economic development (ED). Ecosystem service change risk (ESCR) and landscape ecological risk (LER) were then quantified and incorporated into an ecological risk index (ERI) holistically, thereby facilitating the simultaneous evaluation of ecosystem structural vulnerability and functional degradation. The results revealed that (1) Although grasslands remained the dominant land cover type, they were converted into forestland and bare land. Both the EP and ED scenarios exhibit significant potential to mitigate this grassland loss. (2) Over the period spanning 2000 to 2015, ecosystem services estimate first decreased from 0.520 to 0.443, but then increased to 0.463 in 2020. Among the three scenarios, the ecosystem service values followed the order of EP (0.365) > ED (0.360) > ND (0.359). (3) Both ESCR and LER follow the order of ND > ED > EP. High-ESCR regions are mainly situated in the urban core, eastern meadows, and western glaciers, whereas high LER values are chiefly found in the urban core, western glaciers, and Nam Co. (4) Across all scenarios, ESCR and LER were positively correlated, with the strongest correlation observed under the ND scenario. The integrated ERI, which is derived from the two assessment approaches, demonstrated exhibiting spatial correspondence with high-ESCR areas and followed the order of ND > ED > EP. In conclusion, the analysis of past ecological risks in Lhasa revealed that regional ecological security faces substantial challenges. However, the implementation of environmental protection measures could effectively mitigate these ecological risks. Subsequent development initiatives should entail the incorporation of ecological protection safeguards, and environmental considerations should be fully integrated into economic construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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