Academic Journal
Beyond the rear-view mirror: A practical framework for horizon scanning in financial risk management.
| Τίτλος: | Beyond the rear-view mirror: A practical framework for horizon scanning in financial risk management. |
|---|---|
| Συγγραφείς: | Böcker, Klaus1 (AUTHOR) |
| Πηγή: | Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions. Autumn-Fall2026, Vol. 19 Issue 4, p340-359. 20p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: | *Financial risk management, *Strategic planning, *Organizational resilience, *Risk assessment, *Financial stress tests, Evaluators |
| Περίληψη: | This paper presents a practical framework for business environment analysis and horizon scanning specifically tailored to the operational requirements of risk management and strategy departments within financial institutions. While it briefly acknowledges that traditional models based on historical data encounter limitations when facing structural change, the primary objective is to provide a structured three-phase process based on established foresight methodologies. To facilitate immediate use by risk practitioners who may not have extensive prior experience in foresight science, the paper introduces a clear ontology of future phenomena which avoids excessive theoretical complexity while ensuring conceptual precision. In this context, the paper delineates the vital distinction between horizon scanning and traditional materiality assessments, identifying the former as a critical upstream input that informs the latter by challenging existing system boundaries. Special emphasis is placed on the methodological foundations of the assessment phase, where structured elicitation protocols are utilised when expert judgement is needed. These protocols are designed to minimise cognitive biases and ensure that expert opinions are statistically reliable. The paper concludes by illustrating the operational integration of qualitative foresight intelligence into established banking procedures, including monitoring, stress testing, and strategic planning. In doing so, horizon scanning moves beyond a mere compliance activity, positioning it as a valuable tool for enhancing long-term strategic resilience and risk management practice. The paper also provides illustrative examples that help to turn horizon scanning into a practical tool, advancing it beyond compliance to support strategic resilience and risk management. This article is also included in The Business & Management Collection which can be accessed at https://hstalks.com/business/. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions is the property of Henry Stewart Publications LLP and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | Business Source Index |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: bsx DbLabel: Business Source Index An: 196883492 RelevancyScore: 1515 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 1515 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Beyond the rear-view mirror: A practical framework for horizon scanning in financial risk management. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Böcker%2C+Klaus%22">Böcker, Klaus</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Risk+Management+in+Financial+Institutions%22">Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions</searchLink>. Autumn-Fall2026, Vol. 19 Issue 4, p340-359. 20p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Financial+risk+management%22">Financial risk management</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Strategic+planning%22">Strategic planning</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Organizational+resilience%22">Organizational resilience</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Risk+assessment%22">Risk assessment</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Financial+stress+tests%22">Financial stress tests</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Evaluators%22">Evaluators</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: This paper presents a practical framework for business environment analysis and horizon scanning specifically tailored to the operational requirements of risk management and strategy departments within financial institutions. While it briefly acknowledges that traditional models based on historical data encounter limitations when facing structural change, the primary objective is to provide a structured three-phase process based on established foresight methodologies. To facilitate immediate use by risk practitioners who may not have extensive prior experience in foresight science, the paper introduces a clear ontology of future phenomena which avoids excessive theoretical complexity while ensuring conceptual precision. In this context, the paper delineates the vital distinction between horizon scanning and traditional materiality assessments, identifying the former as a critical upstream input that informs the latter by challenging existing system boundaries. Special emphasis is placed on the methodological foundations of the assessment phase, where structured elicitation protocols are utilised when expert judgement is needed. These protocols are designed to minimise cognitive biases and ensure that expert opinions are statistically reliable. The paper concludes by illustrating the operational integration of qualitative foresight intelligence into established banking procedures, including monitoring, stress testing, and strategic planning. In doing so, horizon scanning moves beyond a mere compliance activity, positioning it as a valuable tool for enhancing long-term strategic resilience and risk management practice. The paper also provides illustrative examples that help to turn horizon scanning into a practical tool, advancing it beyond compliance to support strategic resilience and risk management. This article is also included in The Business & Management Collection which can be accessed at https://hstalks.com/business/. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions is the property of Henry Stewart Publications LLP and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=bsx&AN=196883492 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 20 StartPage: 340 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Financial risk management Type: general – SubjectFull: Strategic planning Type: general – SubjectFull: Organizational resilience Type: general – SubjectFull: Risk assessment Type: general – SubjectFull: Financial stress tests Type: general – SubjectFull: Evaluators Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Beyond the rear-view mirror: A practical framework for horizon scanning in financial risk management. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Böcker, Klaus IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 09 Text: Autumn-Fall2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 17528887 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 19 – Type: issue Value: 4 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions Type: main |
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