Academic Journal
Breaking Bad or Making Amends? The Dynamics of Internal Conflict After Democratisation.
| Τίτλος: | Breaking Bad or Making Amends? The Dynamics of Internal Conflict After Democratisation. |
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| Συγγραφείς: | Adam, Antonis1 (AUTHOR) aadam@uoi.gr, Tsarsitalidou, Sofia2,3 (AUTHOR) |
| Πηγή: | Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics. Oct2026, Vol. 88 Issue 5, p1149-1163. 15p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: | *Conflict management, Democratization, Political stability, Revolutions, Causal inference, Social unrest, Public demonstrations |
| Περίληψη: | This paper examines the impact of democratisation on internal conflict, with a focus on the timing of effects and the type of conflict involved. Using a local projection‐based difference‐in‐differences approach and a panel of 160 countries from 1919 to 2021, we distinguish between minor (e.g., protests and strikes) and major (e.g., revolutions and assassinations) conflict events through factor analysis. We find that democratisation leads to a substantial and persistent decline in minor conflict, with effects growing stronger over time. For major conflict, point estimates are generally negative and become statistically significant only after more than a decade post‐democratisation. These results are consistent with the view that democratisation can defuse lower‐intensity unrest, whereas evidence on large‐scale violence suggests that it is subject to a slower adjustment process. The findings enhance our understanding of the democratisation‐conflict nexus and provide insights for policy formulation and conflict management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | Business Source Index |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Breaking Bad or Making Amends? The Dynamics of Internal Conflict After Democratisation. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Adam%2C+Antonis%22">Adam, Antonis</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> aadam@uoi.gr</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tsarsitalidou%2C+Sofia%22">Tsarsitalidou, Sofia</searchLink><relatesTo>2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Oxford+Bulletin+of+Economics+%26+Statistics%22">Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics</searchLink>. Oct2026, Vol. 88 Issue 5, p1149-1163. 15p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Conflict+management%22">Conflict management</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Democratization%22">Democratization</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Political+stability%22">Political stability</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Revolutions%22">Revolutions</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Causal+inference%22">Causal inference</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Social+unrest%22">Social unrest</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Public+demonstrations%22">Public demonstrations</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: This paper examines the impact of democratisation on internal conflict, with a focus on the timing of effects and the type of conflict involved. Using a local projection‐based difference‐in‐differences approach and a panel of 160 countries from 1919 to 2021, we distinguish between minor (e.g., protests and strikes) and major (e.g., revolutions and assassinations) conflict events through factor analysis. We find that democratisation leads to a substantial and persistent decline in minor conflict, with effects growing stronger over time. For major conflict, point estimates are generally negative and become statistically significant only after more than a decade post‐democratisation. These results are consistent with the view that democratisation can defuse lower‐intensity unrest, whereas evidence on large‐scale violence suggests that it is subject to a slower adjustment process. The findings enhance our understanding of the democratisation‐conflict nexus and provide insights for policy formulation and conflict management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1111/obes.70044 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 15 StartPage: 1149 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Conflict management Type: general – SubjectFull: Democratization Type: general – SubjectFull: Political stability Type: general – SubjectFull: Revolutions Type: general – SubjectFull: Causal inference Type: general – SubjectFull: Social unrest Type: general – SubjectFull: Public demonstrations Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Breaking Bad or Making Amends? The Dynamics of Internal Conflict After Democratisation. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Adam, Antonis – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Tsarsitalidou, Sofia IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 10 Text: Oct2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 03059049 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 88 – Type: issue Value: 5 Titles: – TitleFull: Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics Type: main |
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