Academic Journal
Selection Regimes and Selection Errors.
| Τίτλος: | Selection Regimes and Selection Errors. |
|---|---|
| Συγγραφείς: | Sharapov, Dmitry1 (AUTHOR) dmitry.sharapov@imperial.ac.uk, Dahlander, Linus2 (AUTHOR) linus.dahlander@esmt.org |
| Πηγή: | Organization Science (INFORMS). Nov/Dec2025, Vol. 36 Issue 6, p2324-2348. 25p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: | *Organizational change, *Research & development, *Decision making, *Project evaluation, False positive error, Evaluation methodology, False alarms |
| Περίληψη: | How can the selection of innovation projects be designed to reduce false positives and false negatives? Prior research has provided theoretical insights into organizing to reduce errors, yet we know little about how organizations adapt selection over time and the effects of this on selection outcomes. Drawing from qualitative data from 126 interviews conducted over several years, we explore how an accelerator evolved through three selection regimes for high-stakes funding decisions, focusing on the organizational changes and their underlying reasons. We then analyze quantitative data from all 3,580 submissions they received, assessing false positives and false negatives across these regimes. Our findings reveal a persistent occurrence of both types of errors, with relatively small differences across the regimes despite deliberate efforts to enhance the process. In the final regime, which increased submission quality by emphasizing applicant track record and adding additional layers of screening, evaluators surprisingly became more prone to making selection errors. This finding stands net of accounting for (1) differences in the pool of submissions, (2) differences in treatment effects through training and resources provided, (3) learning, and (4) market evolution. By combining qualitative and quantitative data, we explain this through two mechanisms: (1) mean reversion in combination with increased emphasis on applicant track record and (2) within-type adverse selection enabled by a more stringent selection process. The study reveals that evolving an organization's selection regime may require adjustments across multiple aspects, resulting in unintended consequences. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2023.17482. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Organization Science (INFORMS) is the property of INFORMS: Institute for Operations Research & the Management Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | Business Source Index |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Selection Regimes and Selection Errors. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sharapov%2C+Dmitry%22">Sharapov, Dmitry</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> dmitry.sharapov@imperial.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dahlander%2C+Linus%22">Dahlander, Linus</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> linus.dahlander@esmt.org</i> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Organization+Science+%28INFORMS%29%22">Organization Science (INFORMS)</searchLink>. Nov/Dec2025, Vol. 36 Issue 6, p2324-2348. 25p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Organizational+change%22">Organizational change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Research+%26+development%22">Research & development</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Decision+making%22">Decision making</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Project+evaluation%22">Project evaluation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22False+positive+error%22">False positive error</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Evaluation+methodology%22">Evaluation methodology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22False+alarms%22">False alarms</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: How can the selection of innovation projects be designed to reduce false positives and false negatives? Prior research has provided theoretical insights into organizing to reduce errors, yet we know little about how organizations adapt selection over time and the effects of this on selection outcomes. Drawing from qualitative data from 126 interviews conducted over several years, we explore how an accelerator evolved through three selection regimes for high-stakes funding decisions, focusing on the organizational changes and their underlying reasons. We then analyze quantitative data from all 3,580 submissions they received, assessing false positives and false negatives across these regimes. Our findings reveal a persistent occurrence of both types of errors, with relatively small differences across the regimes despite deliberate efforts to enhance the process. In the final regime, which increased submission quality by emphasizing applicant track record and adding additional layers of screening, evaluators surprisingly became more prone to making selection errors. This finding stands net of accounting for (1) differences in the pool of submissions, (2) differences in treatment effects through training and resources provided, (3) learning, and (4) market evolution. By combining qualitative and quantitative data, we explain this through two mechanisms: (1) mean reversion in combination with increased emphasis on applicant track record and (2) within-type adverse selection enabled by a more stringent selection process. The study reveals that evolving an organization's selection regime may require adjustments across multiple aspects, resulting in unintended consequences. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2023.17482. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Organization Science (INFORMS) is the property of INFORMS: Institute for Operations Research & the Management Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1287/orsc.2023.17482 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 25 StartPage: 2324 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Organizational change Type: general – SubjectFull: Research & development Type: general – SubjectFull: Decision making Type: general – SubjectFull: Project evaluation Type: general – SubjectFull: False positive error Type: general – SubjectFull: Evaluation methodology Type: general – SubjectFull: False alarms Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Selection Regimes and Selection Errors. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Sharapov, Dmitry – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Dahlander, Linus IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 11 Text: Nov/Dec2025 Type: published Y: 2025 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 10477039 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 36 – Type: issue Value: 6 Titles: – TitleFull: Organization Science (INFORMS) Type: main |
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