Academic Journal
Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models.
| Τίτλος: | Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models. |
|---|---|
| Συγγραφείς: | Shair, Syazreen1 syazreen@tmsk.uitm.edu.my, Purcal, Sachi2 sachi.purcal@mq.edu.au, Parr, Nick3 nick.parr@mq.edu.au |
| Πηγή: | Risks. 2017, Vol. 5 Issue 1, p16. 20p. |
| Θεματικοί όροι: | *Mortality -- Mathematical models, Death rate, Prediction models, Poisson distribution, Population forecasting |
| Περίληψη: | Coherent models were developed recently to forecast the mortality of two or more sub-populations simultaneously and to ensure long-term non-divergent mortality forecasts of sub-populations. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of two recently-published coherent mortality models, the Poisson common factor and the product-ratio functional models. These models are compared to each other and the corresponding independent models, as well as the original Lee-Carter model. All models are applied to age-gender-specific mortality data for Australia and Malaysia and age-gender-ethnicity-specific data for Malaysia. The out-of-sample forecast error of log death rates, male-to-female death rate ratios and life expectancy at birth from each model are compared and examined across groups. The results show that, in terms of overall accuracy, the forecasts of both coherent models are consistently more accurate than those of the independent models for Australia and for Malaysia, but the relative performance differs by forecast horizon. Although the product-ratio functional model outperforms the Poisson common factor model for Australia, the Poisson common factor is more accurate for Malaysia. For the ethnic groups application, ethnic-coherence gives better results than gender-coherence. The results provide evidence that coherent models are preferable to independent models for forecasting sub-populations' mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Risks is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Βάση Δεδομένων: | Business Source Index |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 CustomLinks: – Url: https://resolver.ebsco.com/c/fiv2js/result?sid=EBSCO:bsx&genre=article&issn=22279091&ISBN=&volume=5&issue=1&date=20170101&spage=16&pages=16-35&title=Risks&atitle=Evaluating%20Extensions%20to%20Coherent%20Mortality%20Forecasting%20Models.&aulast=Shair%2C%20Syazreen&id=DOI:10.3390/risks5010016 Name: Full Text Finder (for New FTF UI) (ns324271) Category: fullText Text: Full Text Finder MouseOverText: Full Text Finder |
|---|---|
| Header | DbId: bsx DbLabel: Business Source Index An: 122322209 RelevancyScore: 1191 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 1190.51184082031 |
| IllustrationInfo | |
| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shair%2C+Syazreen%22">Shair, Syazreen</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> syazreen@tmsk.uitm.edu.my</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Purcal%2C+Sachi%22">Purcal, Sachi</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><i> sachi.purcal@mq.edu.au</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Parr%2C+Nick%22">Parr, Nick</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo><i> nick.parr@mq.edu.au</i> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Risks%22">Risks</searchLink>. 2017, Vol. 5 Issue 1, p16. 20p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mortality+--+Mathematical+models%22">Mortality -- Mathematical models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Death+rate%22">Death rate</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Prediction+models%22">Prediction models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Poisson+distribution%22">Poisson distribution</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Population+forecasting%22">Population forecasting</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Coherent models were developed recently to forecast the mortality of two or more sub-populations simultaneously and to ensure long-term non-divergent mortality forecasts of sub-populations. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of two recently-published coherent mortality models, the Poisson common factor and the product-ratio functional models. These models are compared to each other and the corresponding independent models, as well as the original Lee-Carter model. All models are applied to age-gender-specific mortality data for Australia and Malaysia and age-gender-ethnicity-specific data for Malaysia. The out-of-sample forecast error of log death rates, male-to-female death rate ratios and life expectancy at birth from each model are compared and examined across groups. The results show that, in terms of overall accuracy, the forecasts of both coherent models are consistently more accurate than those of the independent models for Australia and for Malaysia, but the relative performance differs by forecast horizon. Although the product-ratio functional model outperforms the Poisson common factor model for Australia, the Poisson common factor is more accurate for Malaysia. For the ethnic groups application, ethnic-coherence gives better results than gender-coherence. The results provide evidence that coherent models are preferable to independent models for forecasting sub-populations' mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Risks is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=bsx&AN=122322209 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.3390/risks5010016 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 20 StartPage: 16 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Mortality -- Mathematical models Type: general – SubjectFull: Death rate Type: general – SubjectFull: Prediction models Type: general – SubjectFull: Poisson distribution Type: general – SubjectFull: Population forecasting Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Shair, Syazreen – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Purcal, Sachi – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Parr, Nick IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 01 Text: 2017 Type: published Y: 2017 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 22279091 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 5 – Type: issue Value: 1 Titles: – TitleFull: Risks Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |