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    Συγγραφείς: Фоменко Е. И., Бубнов И. А., ГОУ ВПО "ДОНАУИГС", FOMENKO E. I., BUBNOV I. A., SEE HPE "DAMPA"

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    Πηγή: Comparative Politics Russia; Том 7, № 4(25) (2016); 72-94 ; Сравнительная политика; Том 7, № 4(25) (2016); 72-94 ; 2412-4990 ; 2221-3279 ; 10.18611/2221-3279-2016-7-4(25)

    Περιγραφή αρχείου: application/pdf

    Relation: https://www.comparativepolitics.org/jour/article/view/546/465; Гринин Л.Е., Исаев Л.М., Коротаев А.В. Революции и нестабильность на Ближнем Востоке. – М.: Моск. ред. изд-ва «Учитель», 2015.; Гринин Л.Е., Коротаев А.В. Демократия и революция // История и современность. – 2013. – №2 (18). – С. 15-35.; Гринин Л.Е., Коротаев А.В. Революция vs демократия // Полис. – 2014. – №3. – С. 139- 158.; Гринин Л.Е., Коротаев А.В. Циклы, кризисы, ловушки современной Мир-Системы. Исследование кондратьевских, жюгляровских и вековых циклов, глобальных кризисов, мальтузианских и постмальтузианских ловушек. – М.: Издательство ЛКИ/URSS, 2012.; Гринин Л.Е., Коротаев А.В., Цирель С.В. Остановится ли китайский взлет? Комплексный системный анализ, математическое моделирование и прогнозирование развития стран БРИКС. Предварительные результаты / Отв. ред. А.А. Акаев и др. – М.: Красанд/URSS, 2014.; Коротаев А.В., Исаев Л.М., Васильев А.М. Количественный анализ революционной волны 2013–2014 гг. //Социологические исследования. – 2015. – №8 (376). С. 119-127.; Коротаев А.В., Малков А.С., Халтурина Д.А. Законы истории: Математическое моделирование развития Мир-Системы. Демография, экономика, культура. – М.: КомКнига/URSS, 2007.; Коротаев А.В., Слинько Е.В., Шульгин С.Г., Билюга С.Э. Промежуточные типы социально–политических режимов и социальнополитическая нестабильность: опыт количественного кросс–национального анализа //Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. – 2016. – №3.; Коротаев А.В., Халтурина Д.А. Инвестиции в базовое образование как мера по предотвращению социально–демографических катастроф в развивающихся странах. / Системный мониторинг. Глобальные и региональные риски / Ред. Д.А. Халтурина, А.В. Коротаев. 2010. – С. 301-314.; Малков С.Ю., Коротаев А.В., Исаев Л.М., Кузьминова Е.В. О методике оценки текущего состояния и прогноза социальной нестабильности: опыт количественного анализа событий Арабской весны // Полис. Политические исследования. – 2013. – №4. – С. 137- 162.; Садовничий В.А., Акаев А.А., Коротаев А.В., Малков С.Ю. Качество образования, эффективность НИОКР и экономический рост. Количественный анализ и математическое моделирование. – М.: Ленанд/ URSS, 2016. – 352 c.; Aiyar, Shekhar; Duval, Romain; Puy, Damien; Wu, Yiqun; Zhang, Longmei. Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap / IMF Working Paper No. WP/13/71, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, 2013.; Banks, Arthur S.; Wilson Kenneth A. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive / Databanks International. Jerusalem, Israel. Mode of access: http://www.databanksinternational.com; Barro Robert J. Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries // Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1991, No.106 (2), pp. 407-443.; Barro Robert J; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier. Economic growth. New York: McGraw–Hill, 1995.; Benos, Nikos; Zotou, Stefania. 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Global Credit Markets, Political Violence, and Politically Sustainable Risk Premia // International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations, 2013, Vol. 39, No.3, pp. 316-342.; Cutright, Philips. National Political Development: Social and Economic Correlates. In Politics and Social Life: An Introduction to Political Behavior, ed. Nelson W. Polsby, Robert A. Dentler, and Paul A. Smith. Boston: Houghton Miffl in, 1963.; Dahl, Robert A. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1971.; DiGiuseppe, Matthew R.; Barry, Colin M.; Frank, Richard W. Good for the Money International Finance, State Capacity, and Internal Armed Confl ict // Journal of Peace Research, 2012, Vol. 49, No.3, pp. 391-405.; Dzhakhan S. (Ed.). Doklad o chelovecheskom razvitii 2015. Trud vo imya chelovecheskogo razvitiya (The Human Development Report 2015. Work in the Name of Human Development). NY – Moscow: Programma razvitiya OON – Izdatel’stvo «Ves’ Mir».; Epstein, David L.; Bates, Robert; Goldstone, Jack A.; Kristensen, Ida; O’Halloran, Sharyn. Democratic transitions // American Journal of Political Science, 2006, No.50 (3), pp. 551- 569.; Gates, Scott; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark P., Strand, Håvard. Institutional consistency and Political Instability: Persistence and Change in Political Systems Revisited, 1800-1998. Presented at the annual meeting of American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., 2000.; Goldstone, Jack A. Protests in Ukraine, Thailand and Venezuela: What Unites Them? / Russia Direct. Mode of access: http://www.russia–direct.org/content/protests–ukraine–thailand– and–venezuela–what–unites–them; Goldstone, Jack A.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Gurr, David L.; Marshall, Monty G.; Lustik, Michael B.; Woodward, Mark; Ulfelder, Jay. A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability // American Journal of Political Science, 2010, Т. 54, No.1, pp. 190-208.; Goldstone, Jack A.; Gurr, Ted Robert; Harff, Barbara; Levy, Marc A.; Marshall, Monty G.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Kahl, Colin H.; Surko, Pamela T.; Ulfelder, Jay; Unger, John C.; Unger, Alan N. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase III Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), 2000. Mode of access: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/stfail/Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Does “Arab Spring” Mean the Beginning of World System Reconfi guration? // World Futures, 2012, Vol. 68/7, pp. 471-505.; Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Revolution and Democracy in the Context of the Globalization. In The Dialectics of Modernity – Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Editor: Endre Kiss. Arisztotelész Kiadó (Publisherhouse Arostotelész). Budapest, 2014.; Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions // Journal of Globalization Studies, 2010, Vol. 1, No.2, pp. 166-183.; Groves, Adam. Discuss and Evaluate the Relationship between Poverty and Terrorism // E- International Relations. Mode of access: http://www.e-ir.info/2008/01/04/discuss- andevaluate-the-relationship-between-poverty-and-terrorism/Gurr, Ted Robert. Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800-1971 // American Political Science, 1974, Vol. 68 (December), pp. 1482-1504.; Hall Robert L.; Rodeghier Mark; Useem, Bert. Effects of Education on Attitude to Protest. // American Sociological Review, 1986, Vol. 51, No.4, pp. 564-573.; Human Development Data. Mean Years of Schooling 1980–2014. Mode of access: http://hdr.undp.org/en/data Huntington, Samuel P. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1968.; Jahan, Selim (Ed.). 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Income Growth and Revolutions // Social Science Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 95, No.4, pp. 920-937.; Kohli, Harpaul A.; Mukherjee, Natasha. Potential Costs to Asia of the Middle Income Trap // Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 2011, Vol. 3, No.3, pp. 291-311.; Korotayev, Andrey V. Compact Mathematical Models of the World System Development and Their Applicability to the Development of Local Solutions in Third World Countries. In: J. Sheffi eld (ed.) // Systemic Development: Local Solutions in a Global Environment, 2009. Pp. 103-116.; Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. Developing the Methods of Estimation and Forecasting the Arab Spring // Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 2013, Vol. 7 (4), pp. 28-58.; Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. The Arab Spring: A Quantitative Analysis // Arab Studies Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 36 (2), pp. 149-169.; Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Zinkina, Julia. Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013–2014: A Cross–National analysis // Cross–Cultural Research, 2015, Vol. 49 (5), pp. 461-488.; Korotayev, Andrey V.; Malkov, Artemy; Khaltourina, Daria. Introduction to Social Macro- dynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS, 2006.; Lipset, Seymour M. Some Social Requisites of Democracy // American Political Science Review, 1959, No.53, pp. 69-105.; Londregan, John B.; Poole Keith T. Does High Income Promote Democracy? // World Politics, 1996, Vol. 4, pp. 1-30.; MacCulloch, Robert. The Impact of Income on the Taste for Revolt // American Journal of Political Science, 2004, Vol.48, No.4, pp. 830-848.; MacCuloch, Robert; Pezzini, Silvia. 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Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2014. Mode of access: http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm Rueschemeyer, Dietrich; Stephens, Evelyne H.; Stephens, John D. Capitalist Development and Democracy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992.; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X. I Just Ran Four Million Regressions / National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, 1997. No.6252.; The World Bank and the Development Research Center of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China. China 2030. Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society. Washington: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2012.; Ulfelder, Jay; Lustik, Michael. Modeling Transitions to and from Democracy // Democratization, 2007, Vol. 14 (April), pp. 351-387.; Vreeland, James R. The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War // Journal of Confl ict Resolution, 2008, Vol. 52(3), pp. 401-425.; Weede, Erich. Income Inequality, Average Income, and Domestic Violence // The Journal of Confl ict Resolution, 1981, Vol. 25, No.4, pp. 639-654.; World Bank. World Bank Atlas Method. Mode of access: https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/378832-the-world-bank-atlas- method-detailedmethodology; World Bank. World Development Indicators Online. Washington DC: World Bank. Mode of access: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD; World Bank. World Development Indicators Online.Washington DC: World Bank. Mode of access: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG; https://www.comparativepolitics.org/jour/article/view/546

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